Wall Street firms earned $45.9 billion in pretax profits during the first half of 2026, a 51.3% jump from a year earlier that has already surpassed New York City's forecast for the entire year, according to a report released Tuesday by state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. The surge matters well beyond Manhattan because the industry supplies an estimated one-fifth of New York state's tax collections.
The comptroller's 2026 securities industry report measures the broker-dealer operations of New York Stock Exchange member firms, a traditional gauge of Wall Street profitability. Its estimate of $26.3 billion in securities-related state taxes in fiscal 2025-26 represents 20.8% of all state tax collections, revenue that helps fund programs and services across New York, including the Finger Lakes. The tax estimate is subject to revision and does not mean the industry is a similarly large employer in every region.
Profits outpace the forecast
First-half profits rose from $30.4 billion in 2025 to $45.9 billion this year, the highest two-quarter total on record. New York City had forecast $45.3 billion for all of 2026, a 30% decline from last year's record, but firms cleared that mark by June. If the first-half pace continued, annual profits could exceed $90 billion, the comptroller said. That is a scenario, not a full-year result or guarantee.
The firms earned $65.1 billion in 2025, up 30.4% from 2024's $49.9 billion. It was the highest nominal annual total on record, though 2009 and 2021 were higher after adjusting for inflation. The latest figures cover 168 NYSE member firms, down from more than 200 before the 2007-09 financial crisis.
DiNapoli attributed the strength to artificial intelligence investment, increased mergers and acquisitions, and heavier trading amid volatile markets. In the first half, revenue from underwriting activities rose 68%, commissions increased 24.4%, account supervision and advisory revenue rose 16.4%, and other securities income increased 13.2%, the report found. Trading revenue grew 1.8% to $40.3 billion.
The broader market helped generate business for the firms. Global merger and acquisition activity reached $2.8 trillion in the first half, up 44.2% from a year earlier, while global equity issuance rose 76.5% to $569 billion, according to data cited in the report. Those global figures provide context for Wall Street's revenue but are not themselves New York firm profits.
The comptroller cautioned that a recession or major market disruption could reverse the gains. Among the risks cited were geopolitical conflict, persistent inflation, higher interest rates, a market increasingly dependent on a small number of AI-linked companies, and reduced financial regulation. A recent interest-rate increase could also raise firms' costs or slow dealmaking.
Jobs and bonuses reach records
New York City's securities industry had 207,400 jobs in 2025, up 7,000 from the previous year and the highest level since the data series began in 2000. Preliminary figures for the first eight months of 2026 put it on pace to add another 5,300 city jobs this year. Roughly 89% of the state's securities jobs were in the city in 2025, so the statewide gain is heavily concentrated there.
Across New York state, the industry employed 223,600 people in 2025, more than twice California's 102,600, the second-highest state total. New York added 24,300 such jobs from 2019 through 2025, a 12.2% increase and the largest numerical gain of any state. Preliminary first-quarter data showed 6,400 more state securities jobs than a year earlier, a 2.9% increase that exceeded the national rate of 2.4%. The report identifies Rochester among the metropolitan areas outside the city where remaining jobs are concentrated, but does not give a Finger Lakes-specific job count.
Average New York City securities pay, including bonuses, climbed 11.1% to $561,770 in 2025, more than five times the $106,880 average for the rest of the city's private sector. The city industry's 2025 bonus pool was a record $49.2 billion, or an average of $246,900 per employee. An average does not describe what most individual employees received.
Firms increased compensation expenses by 18.8% in the first half of 2026. DiNapoli expects this year's bonus pool to grow if there is no significant economic disruption, in contrast with the city's forecast of a 20% decline. His office plans to release a 2026 bonus estimate in March 2027 using tax withholding data.
State revenue and the downside risk
The estimated $26.3 billion in state securities-related taxes for the fiscal year ending March 31 was up 28.5% from the previous year. Personal income taxes on industry pay accounted for 88.3% of that amount. The industry also generated an estimated $7.8 billion for New York City in its 2026 fiscal year, up 15.8% and equal to 9.2% of city tax collections. About two-thirds of the city's industry-related receipts came from personal income taxes.
The state and city estimates cover business taxes on profits and personal income taxes but exclude other taxes, such as sales and property taxes, that the comptroller could not attribute precisely to securities firms and employees. Their fiscal years also start in different months, making a direct year-to-year comparison between the two governments inappropriate.
The comptroller estimated that securities activity made up 7% of New York state's economic output in 2025, compared with 1.8% nationally. In 2024, the latest year with county-level output data, the industry accounted for 18.8% of New York City's gross product. Modeling in the report associated roughly one in 21 jobs statewide, directly or indirectly, with the industry that year.
DiNapoli said strong profits should support state and city revenue unless a recession or major disruption intervenes. The same dependence creates a budget risk if Wall Street's earnings or bonuses fall, even in regions with relatively few securities jobs.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.