A cold snap to start the week will bring frost, freezing temperatures and a few spotty showers to the Finger Lakes and Central New York before a soggy midweek pattern settles in. By next weekend, though, the region is expected to swing back toward spring warmth with highs climbing into the 70s — and possibly even warmer weather beyond that.
Forecasters at the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton say the week ahead will feature several distinct weather phases, beginning with an unusually cold air mass lingering over Upstate New York through Tuesday morning.
Frost and freeze concerns to start the week
Frost advisories covered much of the Finger Lakes, Central New York and Southern Tier early Monday morning as overnight temperatures dropped into the low and mid-30s.
Forecasters say Monday night into Tuesday morning could bring an even greater frost and freeze threat, especially in colder inland valleys and rural locations away from the lakeshores. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s across much of the region, with upper 20s possible in the colder Southern Tier valleys and areas east of Lake Ontario.
The coldest locations could see freeze conditions capable of damaging gardens, flowering plants and early-season crops. Residents with sensitive outdoor vegetation are being urged to cover plants or bring them indoors.
Despite the cold mornings, daytime temperatures will slowly recover. Monday highs are expected to range from the upper 40s in higher terrain to the mid-50s across lower elevations. Tuesday will be milder with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 50s to mid-60s under increasing sunshine.
Spotty showers Monday before rainier pattern develops
Monday will not be a complete washout, but forecasters say some isolated to scattered showers could develop during the afternoon as small disturbances rotate through the cold upper-level pattern.
The best chance for those pop-up showers will be across the western Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and parts of Central New York. Most locations will remain dry for much of the day, though skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy at times.
Forecasters say the atmosphere remains fairly dry overall, which means some showers may be light or brief enough that rainfall never fully reaches the ground in certain areas.
Conditions remain mostly quiet through Tuesday evening before the next stronger storm system approaches from the west.
Widespread rain expected Wednesday into Thursday
The most unsettled stretch of the week arrives late Tuesday night through Thursday as a slow-moving trough of low pressure moves into the Northeast.
Louisiana Meteor Fireball Lights Up the Early Morning Sky Across the Southern United States Rain is expected to overspread the Finger Lakes and Central New York from west to east overnight Tuesday, becoming widespread by Wednesday morning. Periods of steady rain and scattered showers are expected throughout Wednesday, with a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening.
Showers are then expected to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as a large upper-level low pressure system slowly spins across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
While the pattern will be wetter, forecasters do not expect a major flooding event at this time. Most areas are projected to receive less than a half-inch of rainfall through Thursday morning, though some locations could approach one inch by the time showers taper off later Friday.
Clouds and rain will also keep temperatures milder overnight during the middle of the week, eliminating the frost threat after Tuesday morning.
Forecast uncertainty late week
The timing of the storm system’s departure remains somewhat uncertain heading into Friday.
Some forecast models move the low pressure system east more quickly, allowing drier weather to return sooner. Others keep lingering showers around longer, especially for areas east of Interstate 81 and into Central New York.
As a result, Friday currently looks cooler and somewhat unsettled, though conditions should gradually improve compared to the middle of the week.
Warmer air returns for the weekend
A more noticeable warming trend is expected by Saturday and Sunday as the broader weather pattern begins shifting across the eastern United States.
Forecasters expect highs to return to the 70s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York by the weekend, with overnight lows climbing back into the upper 40s and 50s.
The warmer pattern may still feature occasional showers and thunderstorms, but the colder spring air that dominated the start of May is expected to retreat.
Looking even farther ahead, long-range forecast guidance suggests a potentially significant warm-up early next week. Meteorologists say some parts of Central New York and the Finger Lakes could approach 80 degrees by Monday or Tuesday if the warmer pattern fully develops.
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