A powerful storm system will shake up the Finger Lakes and Central New York over the next few days, with springlike temperatures, damaging wind gusts, and a rain-to-snow switch by Friday.
The National Weather Service expects the strongest impacts to hit today through Friday night, with gusts topping out near 50 mph in many areas and temperatures tumbling after a cold front pushes through early Friday.
Today: Mild air surges in, winds ramp up
Southerly winds will pull mild air into the region today. Forecasters expect highs in the low to mid 40s in Central New York, with some areas pushing higher where the snowpack doesn’t hold temperatures down.
Winds will strengthen late this morning into the afternoon. The Buffalo office expects widespread gusts of 45 to 50 mph by later today and tonight outside the highest-wind zones farther west and north.
Clouds will increase as the day goes on. Rain arrives tonight as moisture spreads in ahead of a strong cold front.
Tonight: Rain spreads in as winds peak
Rain will expand from southwest to northeast tonight. Forecasters expect most places to stay in the 40s to low 50s for much of the night.
The Buffalo forecast discussion calls for lighter rainfall totals from the Lower Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes, generally around 0.10 to 0.25 inches, while other areas farther west could see higher totals. The warm air and rain will “severely shrink the snowpack,” and forecasters note a low risk of flooding.
Winds remain the biggest issue. The Binghamton office says strong, gusty winds continue tonight into Friday night, with the highest gusts favored over hilltops, ridge tops, and higher terrain across the Finger Lakes and areas south of I-90.
Friday: Cold front, crashing temps, then snow showers
A strong cold front will sweep across the region early Friday morning. Forecasters say a narrow, convective-looking line of showers could move along the front, and they can’t rule out a rumble of thunder even though instability looks low.
Behind the front, winds shift to the west and stay strong. Both Buffalo and Binghamton highlight gusts up to 50 mph on Friday, with temperatures falling through the day as colder air pours in.
Rain will change to snow showers late Friday morning into Friday night. The Binghamton forecast calls for less than an inch of accumulation south of the Mohawk Valley, with 1 to 3 inches possible along and north of the Mohawk Valley where Lake Ontario lake effect holds on longer. The Buffalo discussion also warns that as snow becomes drier Friday afternoon, blowing snow could develop in spots.
Friday night into Saturday: Lake effect fades, quieter weather returns
Lake effect snow will persist east of the lakes Friday evening, then weaken overnight as drier air and lowering inversion heights shut the bands down.
High pressure then brings a quieter stretch on Saturday. After a cold start, highs should rebound into the 30s and even near 40 degrees as southerly flow returns.
Active advisories for the Finger Lakes and Central New York
Wind Advisory (through 1 a.m. Saturday)
The National Weather Service in Buffalo lists a Wind Advisory from 3 p.m. today to 1 a.m. Saturday for multiple counties, including Ontario and Wayne. The advisory calls for southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph today through tonight, then west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Friday through Friday evening.
The National Weather Service in Binghamton lists a Wind Advisory from 7 p.m. tonight to 1 a.m. Saturday for a large swath of Central New York that includes Cayuga (southern), Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Tompkins, and Yates. That advisory also calls for gusts up to 50 mph tonight into early Friday, followed by westerly gusts up to 50 mph Friday into Friday evening. It notes the strongest winds tonight into Friday morning may favor higher terrain and ridge tops, with widespread strong gusts expected late Friday morning through Friday evening as colder air moves in behind the front.
What to do now
Plan for scattered power outages and difficult travel in open areas, especially for high-profile vehicles. Bring in or secure anything that can blow around, including outdoor holiday decorations.
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