Four of New York’s congressional races are shaping up to be some of the nation’s tightest in 2026, and turnout may tip the scales, according to the Times Union.
Historical trends show Democrats lose more voters in midterms—especially after winning the White House—while Republicans often gain ground by turning out their base. The most vulnerable seat: NY-17, held by GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who faces eight Democratic challengers.
Democrats could flip seats if they boost turnout, but redistricting and energized GOP campaigns mean the fight will be fierce.
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