Wildfire smoke is expected to keep skies hazy across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Wednesday and Thursday, with air quality alerts in effect through midnight Wednesday night and temperatures likely to swing with the density of the smoke.
Atlantic Hurricane Activity Begins to Increase as Forecasters Monitor New Tropical Development Forecasters at the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton said the next broader change still comes later, as a system moving into the Northeast late Friday into the weekend brings a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms along with a gradual cooling trend.
Smoke takes over the midweek forecast
The main weather story for Wednesday is not rain or heat, but smoke moving south out of Canada and settling close enough to the surface to affect both visibility and daytime warming. The Binghamton office said periods of thick smoke are likely today through Thursday, and that visibility could fall below 3 miles at times with the smell of smoke noticeable across the region.
That thicker smoke matters for more than sky color. Forecasters in Binghamton said some places under the densest smoke Tuesday ran 10 to 15 degrees cooler than computer guidance had projected, which is why highs were lowered again for Wednesday and Thursday. Buffalo forecasters also cut maximum temperatures for both days, saying smoke should linger across western and north central parts of New York through at least Thursday.
The result is a forecast with more spread than a normal mid-July day. Rochester is still projected to reach around 90 degrees Wednesday, while Syracuse and Ithaca are forecast in the upper 80s, but the National Weather Service warned those numbers could come down if the smoke plume thickens for long stretches during the afternoon. In the Southern Tier and higher terrain, smoke could make it easier for some communities to miss the warmer guidance by a wider margin.
There is also a subtle air-mass change behind the heat of the last couple of days. Buffalo forecasters said a cold front crossing western New York this morning should push somewhat cooler and less humid air southward, so even where afternoon temperatures climb well into the 80s, the air may feel less oppressive than it did Tuesday. That will not clear the smoke, but it should keep the day from feeling as heavy as the region’s recent heat peak.
Thursday stays hazy, and the temperature call stays difficult
Thursday looks like a continuation of the same basic pattern rather than a clean reset. Both forecast offices kept smoke in the forecast through Thursday night, and Binghamton said confidence remains limited because thick smoke could keep heating in check again after a cooler start to the day.
If the plume thins for a few hours, many lower-elevation spots in the Finger Lakes and Central New York could still push back into the mid or upper 80s. If smoke remains more concentrated, especially across southern and interior sections, Binghamton said some places could end up stuck in the upper 60s to low 70s instead of reaching typical mid-July warmth. That is a large spread for a day that otherwise looks mostly dry, and it is the biggest forecast uncertainty in the short term.
Outside of the smoke, Thursday does not appear especially active. Buffalo said only a very low-end shower risk exists in western New York today, and the broader Finger Lakes and Central New York forecast stays largely rain-free through Thursday. Winds turn westerly to northwesterly at times, which may help shuffle the smoke around from hour to hour without fully clearing it out.
Overnight periods should be quieter, but they are not entirely straightforward either. Binghamton noted that smoke does not block overnight cooling the same way a typical thick cloud deck does, so some valley and rural locations could cool more than expected by dawn, even while haze persists overhead.
Southeast Texas Flash Flooding Forces Road Closures as Heavy Rain Continues Across the Region Friday brings the transition
The late-week shift arrives more slowly than a classic all-day washout. Current point forecasts around Rochester, Syracuse and Ithaca still show Friday itself starting mainly dry, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and at least some breaks of sun. Smoke may still be part of the picture Friday, especially if wildfire activity remains elevated in Canada and the flow aloft changes only gradually.
After that, the atmosphere starts turning more active. The Binghamton office said a trough digging into the Northeast late Friday into the weekend, along with a broad surface low, will likely bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Buffalo’s forecast is a little less aggressive in wording for western New York, but it also points to increasing chances for showers or a thunderstorm from Friday through Sunday.
The timing still matters. If the better lift and deeper moisture hold off until Friday night, much of the Finger Lakes could get through most of Friday with only increasing clouds. If the system arrives a little earlier, storms would have more daytime heating to work with. Binghamton said wind shear in the atmosphere will run in the 30- to 40-knot range, enough that a few afternoon storms could become severe once the weekend pattern begins to take shape.
That does not translate to a guaranteed severe-weather outbreak across the region. At this point, the clearer signal is for a wetter and less settled period with locally heavy downpours, lightning and a few stronger storms mixed in, especially where afternoon heating overlaps with the incoming system.
Weekend turns wetter before conditions improve
Right now, Saturday appears to be the most consistently wet period in the five-day stretch. Forecast points from Rochester to Syracuse and Ithaca show showers and thunderstorms becoming likely Saturday and continuing into Saturday night, which lines up with Binghamton’s broader call for widespread rain and storm coverage as the trough and surface low move through.
That does not mean every hour will be rainy, but it does suggest a more widespread event than the isolated or very low-end shower chances earlier in the week. The combination of a broad low, weekend moisture and stronger atmospheric support makes Saturday the period most likely to deliver repeated rounds of rain somewhere in the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
By Sunday, the pattern should begin easing, though not necessarily shutting off all rain chances immediately. Current forecasts keep at least a modest chance for a leftover shower in parts of Central New York and the Southern Tier, while western sections trend drier with more breaks of sun. Temperatures should settle back into the lower to middle 80s in many communities, a bit cooler than the smoky midweek warmth and more in line with the late-week cooling trend outlined by Buffalo.
Early next week does not look locked into a long dry stretch. Binghamton said the broader setup remains favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms into early next week, even after the main weekend system weakens or shifts away. For now, though, the cleanest read on the five-day forecast is a smoke-dominated Wednesday and Thursday, a mostly dry but transitional Friday, and a wetter Saturday before conditions start to improve Sunday.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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