A Cornell-led study found that China's push to improve environmental quality helped reduce pollution but placed heavy economic pressure on upstream farming counties.
Researchers found that agricultural value added dropped by 58% in counties upstream from water monitoring stations after China tied local leaders' job evaluations to environmental quality improvements.
The study focused on China's Scientific Outlook on Development program, launched more than 20 years ago, and its use of more than 350 river monitoring stations to track environmental performance.
According to Cornell, the monitoring system identified pollution from upstream agricultural sources, placing the burden of compliance on farms and residents in those areas. Downstream farms were not affected in the same way.
Wendong Zhang, an associate professor in Cornell's Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, said China's environmental policies have produced major improvements in air and water quality, but also created important trade-offs.
Zhang is senior author of the study, "Impact of Water Quality Regulation on the Agricultural Economy in China," published June 19 in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.
Researchers examined 462 counties across China's major river basins over two decades. They used the upstream and downstream boundary around monitoring stations as a natural dividing line to estimate the effect of environmental policy on agriculture.
The study found upstream counties hired fewer agricultural workers, cultivated less land and used less fertilizer. It also found people with rural household registration were more likely to migrate out of upstream counties after the reform.
The policy did produce environmental gains, according to the study. Upstream counties saw measurable reductions in nitrous oxide emissions from farmland soils and livestock manure.
Zhang said the findings show that policymakers need to consider how environmental regulations can affect rural economies and distribute costs unevenly depending on location.
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