New federal data shows fertility in the United States has fallen to record lows, but researchers say the long-term outlook is more complicated than headline numbers suggest.
A new analysis from Pew Research Center found the nation’s total fertility rate fell to a historic low of 1.60 children per woman in 2024, continuing a downward trend that began after the Great Recession. The general fertility rate, which measures births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, also reached its lowest level on record.
The findings have fueled growing concerns among economists and policymakers about the long-term effects of slower population growth, labor force shortages and an aging population. The issue has drawn increasing attention in Washington, where some officials have discussed potential incentives to encourage larger families.
Pew researchers caution, however, that not all fertility measures tell the same story.
While annual birth rates have declined sharply over the past two decades, the average number of children born to women near the end of their childbearing years has remained relatively stable. As of 2024, women ages 40 to 44 had an average of 1.92 children, a figure that has changed little since the early 1990s.
Researchers say much of the apparent decline can be attributed to Americans delaying parenthood rather than completely forgoing it. Birth rates among teenagers and women in their early 20s have fallen dramatically, while births among women in their 30s and early 40s have increased.
Changing social norms, educational attainment, career priorities and economic considerations have all contributed to Americans having children later in life. The average age of first-time mothers has steadily increased as more people wait until they have completed their education, established careers and achieved greater financial stability before starting families.
Public opinion remains divided over what falling birth rates mean for the country. A Pew survey conducted last year found that 53% of Americans believe fewer people having children would have a negative impact on the United States, while 20% viewed it positively and 26% said it would have little effect.
Despite those concerns, most Americans do not want the federal government actively encouraging people to have more children. Pew found that 56% oppose a government role in boosting birth rates, though large bipartisan majorities support measures such as expanded tax credits for parents and paid family leave requirements.
Researchers said it remains unclear whether younger generations will ultimately have fewer children over their lifetimes than previous generations or whether today’s delayed parenthood will continue to shift births into later stages of adulthood.
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