Sunshine and light winds will dominate Wednesday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York after patches of early fog clear from a few Southern Tier valleys, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s.
The quiet pattern will continue through the weekend, although a dry cold front will bring a modest cooldown late Thursday and set up the coldest night of the forecast Friday night, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. The Buffalo office and Binghamton office expect dry weather to hold into early next week, while later city forecasts introduce a slight shower chance Tuesday.
Early fog gives way to Wednesday sunshine
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes will keep skies clear to mostly clear Wednesday. Shallow fog may linger through about 9 a.m. near Elmira and in some western Southern Tier river valleys, but widespread fog is not expected and most communities will begin the day with clear skies.
Temperatures will recover quickly after the chilly start, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s and the warmest reading expected near Elmira. Winds will remain light, with a southerly breeze around Rochester and north or northwest winds elsewhere, generally near 5 mph.
Wednesday evening will remain clear to mostly clear. A weak disturbance moving southeast from the northern Great Lakes may spread a few patches of mid- and high-level clouds across western and north-central New York overnight, but the lower atmosphere will remain too dry for rain.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid- to upper 30s in most communities and near 32 in Elmira. Sheltered river valleys may cool below nearby hills, and localized shallow fog could redevelop late Wednesday night in the western Southern Tier.
Dry cold front crosses Thursday
A weak cold front will move southeast across the region Thursday. The strongest upper-level support will pass well north across Quebec, while limited moisture closer to the surface should keep the front dry as it crosses the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Clouds will increase at times ahead of the front, but the day should still be mostly sunny in Rochester, Geneva, Syracuse and Elmira and partly sunny around Ithaca. Patchy early fog is possible near Ithaca and Elmira before skies brighten.
Thursday highs will cluster in the upper 50s to around 60. Northwest to north winds will become more noticeable as the front passes, with most locations seeing speeds between 5 and 10 mph and occasional readings near 12 or 13 mph around Ithaca and Elmira.
Cooler air will settle south Thursday night as high pressure begins building toward the region. Lows are forecast in the low to mid-30s across much of the region, near 29 in Elmira and in the upper 30s around Rochester. Patchy fog may form toward daybreak Friday in a few valleys around Elmira and Syracuse.
Friday brings cooler sunshine
Friday will be the coolest afternoon of the five-day forecast, but it will stay dry. High pressure and a lack of meaningful moisture will favor abundant sunshine, with only a few lake-effect or upslope clouds possible south and southwest of Lakes Erie and Ontario early in the day.
Highs will reach the lower to mid-50s. North to northeast winds will be light inland. A somewhat stronger north to northeast flow over the lower Great Lakes may build waves near small-craft levels Thursday night into Friday before conditions ease later Friday.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall sharply Friday night. Forecast lows range from about 28 in Elmira to 30 to 32 elsewhere across the region, with even colder readings possible in the most sheltered inland valleys.
Those temperatures would bring freezing conditions to many inland locations by Saturday morning. Localized shallow fog may also develop overnight in western Southern Tier river valleys, but dry air should keep it confined to the usual low-lying spots.
Sunshine and warmer afternoons return this weekend
The center of high pressure will move across the Northeast during the weekend, maintaining dry weather and mostly clear skies. Saturday will begin cold, then temperatures will rebound to around 60 to 62 across the region.
Winds will be light and will gradually turn toward the south or southeast as the high shifts east. Saturday night will stay clear, with lows near 30 in Elmira and in the mid- to upper 30s elsewhere. The colder valley readings will again contrast with milder conditions near Lake Ontario.
Sunday will be sunny and warmer as southerly flow develops on the western side of the high. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the mid-60s, leaving the region roughly 10 degrees warmer than Friday afternoon in many communities.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue Sunday night, with temperatures holding in the upper 30s and 40s. Monday should remain dry and mostly sunny, with highs from the lower 60s around Rochester to the mid-60s farther inland.
Limited shower chance arrives Tuesday
The next weak cold front is expected to approach Tuesday. Most of the forecast remains dry, but current city forecasts introduce a slight shower chance beginning after 8 a.m. around Rochester and after 2 p.m. farther south and east.
Confidence in measurable rain remains low because the Binghamton office says the larger-scale signal is still too weak to include a shower chance in its regional outlook. Tuesday temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid- to upper 50s.
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