A weak cold front will cross the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Tuesday, bringing a few morning clouds and a light breeze but no rain before sunshine expands during the afternoon.
The dry pattern will continue through the weekend under persistent high pressure, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. The Buffalo office and Binghamton office expect mostly clear days, chilly nights and only a slight chance of a brief shower near a second front late Thursday.
Morning clouds give way to Tuesday sun
Mid- and high-level clouds will move across the region during the first part of Tuesday as the weak front passes. Those clouds should thin from west to east, allowing skies to become mostly sunny or sunny for the afternoon.
The front will shave a few degrees from Monday's warmth, but temperatures will still reach seasonable to mild levels. Forecast highs range from about 60 in Rochester and 62 in Geneva to 66 in Syracuse and 67 in Ithaca and Elmira. Temperatures may begin falling from their afternoon peaks before sunset as cooler air filters south.
Northwest to north winds will generally run from 5 to 10 mph. A northeast breeze near the Lake Ontario shore could become a little stronger during the afternoon, especially closer to Rochester, but inland conditions should remain quiet.
The air will remain dry, with no measurable rain expected Tuesday. The combination of sunshine and low afternoon humidity will continue the stretch of fair fall weather that began early in the week.
Clear skies bring another cold night
Skies will clear Tuesday night as high pressure strengthens over the eastern Great Lakes. Light winds and dry air will allow temperatures to fall quickly after sunset, producing another large difference between afternoon highs and overnight lows.
Lows are expected to fall to about 32 in Elmira, 33 in Ithaca and Syracuse, 34 in Geneva and 37 in Rochester. Sheltered valleys may cool faster than nearby hills, leaving some colder pockets near or below freezing before daybreak Wednesday.
Patchy frost is possible late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, particularly around the central Finger Lakes and in the colder Southern Tier valleys. Patchy fog may also develop near Elmira and in other low-lying areas shortly before sunrise.
Any frost or valley fog should fade Wednesday morning. Sunshine will then dominate, with light winds and highs near 60 in Rochester and Geneva, 61 in Syracuse, 64 in Ithaca and 65 in Elmira.
Coastal storm stays east Wednesday night
A storm along the Atlantic coast is expected to edge closer to shore Wednesday night into Thursday, but its rain should remain well east of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The main local effect will be a tightening pressure difference that could make the wind more noticeable Thursday.
Wednesday night will otherwise remain mostly clear. Forecast lows range from the mid-30s in Elmira, Ithaca and Syracuse to the upper 30s in Geneva and around 40 in Rochester. Fog could again form briefly in a few Southern Tier valleys toward Thursday morning.
Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs around 60 to 62 across the region. Northwest winds may increase during the day, with the strongest breezes more likely toward Central New York and the Southern Tier as the coastal system remains nearby.
At the same time, another weak cold front will approach from the northwest. Most forecast guidance keeps that front dry as it reaches the region Thursday or Thursday night because little moisture will be available. One model continues to show the possibility of very light precipitation, so a brief shower cannot be completely ruled out, but any rain would be limited and many communities should remain dry.
Cooler air arrives Friday
A modest push of cooler air will follow the late-week front. Friday should remain sunny, but afternoon temperatures will be lower, with highs near 55 in Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse and around 56 in Ithaca and Elmira.
Northerly winds should ease as high pressure rebuilds. Clear skies Friday night will support another chilly period, with lows ranging from about 32 in Elmira to the mid-30s in Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse and the upper 30s in Rochester.
The continued pattern of clear nights and light winds will keep valley temperatures colder than readings on nearby higher terrain. Frost may return in the coldest inland locations, while communities closer to Lake Ontario should remain somewhat milder.
Dry weather holds through the weekend
High pressure is expected to keep the region dry Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be sunny with highs from the upper 50s near Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse to around 61 in Ithaca and Elmira. Winds will remain light, with southerly flow in many inland locations as the next gradual warmup begins.
Saturday night will remain clear to mostly clear and chilly. Lows should settle into the mid-30s across many inland communities and near 40 around Rochester, with another chance for colder readings in sheltered valleys.
Sunday will bring more sunshine and warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs are forecast near 63 in Syracuse, around 65 in Rochester and Geneva, and close to 66 in Ithaca and Elmira. Light south to southwest winds will accompany the warmer air.
The National Weather Service expects quiet weather to persist into the start of next week. Day-to-day temperatures will continue to depend on the strength of nighttime cooling and how quickly sunshine warms the valleys each afternoon.
Finger Lakes winter outlook favors warmer temperatures, with a less certain precipitation pattern Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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