A frosty and freezing start will give way to abundant sunshine and a sharp warmup across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Sunday, beginning an extended stretch of dry and seasonable fall weather.
Temperatures will climb into the lower 60s by afternoon after starting in the 20s and lower 30s in many communities, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. High pressure is expected to keep rain out of the region through the workweek, with mostly clear skies and cool nights continuing for several days.
Freeze and frost linger early Sunday
The coldest temperatures will occur around daybreak Sunday, when readings will range from the mid-20s in some inland valleys to the lower 30s closer to the Lake Ontario plain. Clear skies and light winds have allowed heat to escape quickly overnight, producing frost across much of the region.
A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 a.m. for Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, along with several counties farther west. Temperatures near 32 degrees are expected across parts of the lake plain, while some well-inland locations may fall into the mid-20s.
Elmira is forecast to dip to about 24 degrees before sunrise, with Ithaca near 26, Geneva near 29, Syracuse near 30 and Rochester around 32. Patchy freezing fog is also possible in the Chemung Valley near Elmira before it dissipates shortly after sunrise.
The frost and any shallow valley fog should fade between about 7 and 9 a.m. Sunshine will then take hold quickly as a broad area of high pressure remains centered over the eastern United States.
Sunshine drives a fast afternoon warmup
Sunday afternoon will feel much milder than the early morning. Highs are expected to reach about 60 in Syracuse and 62 around Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca and Elmira, with most lower elevations settling in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Skies will remain sunny across most of the region. A few lake clouds may cross areas northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the morning or early afternoon, but they are not expected to produce precipitation or become widespread.
A southwest wind will help draw milder air into the region. Winds will generally stay light to moderate, though occasional gusts around 20 to 25 mph are possible across parts of western New York during the afternoon. The breeze will be lighter farther south and east.
The same pressure difference will produce some chop on the eastern Great Lakes, but waves are expected to remain just below levels that would require a small craft advisory. Inland conditions will remain quiet and dry.
Clear skies return Sunday night
Temperatures will fall quickly again Sunday evening under clear to mostly clear skies. The air mass will be warmer than the one in place early Sunday, but sheltered valleys will remain cold enough for another round of frost and patchy fog.
Elmira is forecast to fall to around 28 degrees, with patchy fog developing late and possibly becoming freezing fog before daybreak Monday. Ithaca may reach about 32, while lows should remain closer to 35 in Syracuse, 36 in Geneva and 38 in Rochester.
Frost will be most likely in rural and low-lying areas away from the immediate lakeshores. A lingering light southwest breeze may keep temperatures somewhat higher around Rochester and parts of the Lake Ontario plain, limiting the extent of frost there compared with inland valleys.
Any fog that develops should remain localized. Dry air over the region will work against widespread fog, although calm conditions in favored river and lake valleys could still allow visibility to drop for a time around sunrise.
Monday brings the warmest afternoon
Monday will begin with patchy frost or freezing fog in the coldest valleys before sunshine returns across the region. High pressure will remain firmly in control, keeping winds light and skies mainly clear through the day.
Afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid-60s. Rochester and Geneva are forecast near 65, Syracuse near 64, and Ithaca and Elmira near 66. Those readings will be close to or slightly above normal for the middle of October.
Monday night will not be as cold in most places. Lows are expected to range from the upper 30s in the southern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier to the lower 40s around Rochester and Geneva, though a few sheltered valleys could again turn colder and develop patchy fog.
Dry weather holds through the workweek
The stable pattern is expected to continue Tuesday through Thursday as surface high pressure stays anchored over the eastern United States. A coastal low will develop offshore and linger for several days, but the high should prevent that system from moving far enough inland to bring rain to the Finger Lakes or Central New York.
Mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights will dominate. Tuesday highs should range from about 59 in Rochester to the lower 60s from Geneva and Syracuse south toward Ithaca and Elmira. Overnight lows will generally settle into the mid- to upper 30s, with colder readings possible in protected valleys.
Wednesday and Thursday will bring little change. Highs are forecast to remain around 60 to 63 degrees, accompanied by light northerly winds and plenty of sunshine. Clear or mostly clear nights will allow temperatures to return to the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Localized morning valley fog will remain possible each day, but the overall dry air should keep it from becoming widespread.
Slight cooling possible late in the week
A colder air mass dropping south from Canada may bring a modest cooldown Friday, though confidence is lower in how far west that cooler air will spread. The change is expected to affect temperatures rather than precipitation, with the region remaining dry.
Friday highs are forecast to range from the mid-50s around Rochester to the upper 50s near Geneva, Syracuse, Ithaca and Elmira. Skies should stay mostly sunny, followed by another mostly clear night with lows mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Temperatures should recover toward 60 by Saturday. The dry pattern is likely to hold into next weekend, although the exact position of the cooler air and the offshore storm will determine how quickly readings rebound.
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