A blustery and unusually cold start to the weekend will give way to increasing sunshine across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Saturday, but a widespread freeze is expected after sunset as skies clear and winds ease.
Lingering lake-driven rain showers will taper from west to east through the morning, with a few wet snowflakes possible over the higher terrain before precipitation ends, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. No snow accumulation is expected, and most areas should turn partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon.
Clouds and showers fade Saturday
Saturday will begin with plenty of clouds, scattered light showers and a brisk north to northwest wind. The showers will be most persistent early in the day over higher elevations and in areas favored by northwest flow off the lakes, while lower elevations will see more isolated activity.
Temperatures near daybreak will generally be in the mid-30s to around 40. The cold air may allow rain to mix briefly with wet snow over some hilltops, but road or ground accumulation is not expected. Any mixed precipitation should end as the atmosphere dries later in the morning.
Wind will add to the chill. Gusts above 20 mph are possible across much of Central New York and the Southern Tier during the morning, with locally higher gusts near 25 mph around Ithaca and Elmira. Wind chills may start in the 20s and remain in the 30s for much of the day despite the gradual return of sunshine.
Clouds should break more quickly across the western Finger Lakes and Rochester area, where mostly sunny conditions are expected by afternoon. Clearing may take a little longer near Syracuse and in parts of the Southern Tier, but the remaining cloud cover should continue to erode as high pressure builds in.
Afternoon temperatures will struggle to rise beyond the 40s. Highs near Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira are forecast to reach about 47 to 48 degrees, while higher terrain may remain in the lower 40s. Northwest winds will gradually diminish during the afternoon as the departing storm system moves farther into eastern Canada.
Clear skies set up a widespread freeze
The sharpest cold will arrive Saturday night as high pressure settles south of the region. Clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall quickly after sunset, bringing widespread frost and freezing conditions before Sunday morning.
Lows are forecast to range from the mid-20s in some Southern Tier valleys to the upper 20s around Ithaca and Syracuse. Geneva is expected to fall to around 29, while Rochester may remain closer to 32 as a light breeze and the nearby lakes limit cooling in some locations.
A Freeze Warning is in effect from 11 p.m. Saturday through 9 a.m. Sunday for Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, along with neighboring areas farther west. The coldest readings there are expected in rural locations away from the immediate lakeshores. The Buffalo office noted that a lingering light breeze could keep a few spots from dropping below freezing, but conditions still favor frost across much of the warned area.
Farther south and east, the Binghamton office expects the first hard freeze of the season across much of its region. No New York warning was listed there early Saturday, but forecast lows in the 20s support widespread frost across the southern Finger Lakes, Syracuse area and Southern Tier.
Sunshine brings a quick Sunday warmup
Sunday will begin frosty, but temperatures will rebound rapidly after sunrise. Frost should fade between about 8 and 10 a.m., followed by a sunny afternoon and a switch to a milder southwest wind.
Highs will climb into the lower 60s in lower elevations, including about 60 in Syracuse and Elmira, 61 near Geneva and Ithaca, and 62 around Rochester. Higher terrain will remain somewhat cooler, but the day will be markedly milder than Saturday as the cold air begins to retreat.
Sunday night will stay clear. Most locations will fall into the mid- to upper 30s, although colder Southern Tier valleys may dip close to 30 and see another period of frost late at night. The regional temperature spread will depend on how quickly winds become calm in sheltered areas.
Dry, seasonable weather holds next week
High pressure is expected to remain in control through the workweek, keeping a developing coastal low well south and east of New York. Forecast guidance shows a high-confidence stretch of dry weather, with sunshine during the day and mainly clear skies at night.
Monday will start with areas of frost in the colder valleys before another sunny afternoon. Highs should reach the mid-60s across most lower elevations, with Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira all forecast near 65 or 66 degrees. Monday night will be less cold than Saturday night, though readings in the 30s will remain common.
Little day-to-day change is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs should generally range from the lower to mid-60s, while overnight lows settle into the upper 30s or lower 40s. Light winds and mostly clear skies will dominate, and some valleys could see locally colder readings around daybreak.
The quiet pattern is expected to continue Thursday and Friday. Highs should remain in the low to mid-60s, with mostly sunny skies and only a modest increase in nighttime cloud cover late in the week. Some valleys could approach 70 during the warmest part of the pattern, but most forecast points remain several degrees lower.
Both weather service offices indicate the blocking high-pressure pattern could last into next weekend. Confidence is high that the region will remain generally dry through Friday, while exact temperatures and the position of the nearby coastal system become less certain later in the period.
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