Sunshine and mild afternoon temperatures will begin an extended stretch of dry weather Monday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, though frost and patchy valley fog could linger through the first part of the morning.
Finger Lakes winter outlook favors warmer temperatures, with a less certain precipitation pattern High pressure is expected to remain in control through the week, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. The Buffalo office and Binghamton office both keep rain out of the forecast while projecting clear days and chilly nights. Daytime highs will generally reach the upper 50s and 60s, with a few warmer valleys approaching 70 Monday, while overnight temperatures repeatedly fall into the 20s and 30s in the coldest spots.
Sunshine follows a cold start Monday
A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9 a.m. Monday for Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Temperatures in the mid-30s were expected to allow frost to form before sunrise in those areas. Farther south, temperatures could briefly dip into the upper 20s in sheltered valleys, with patchy fog possible around Elmira and elsewhere in the Southern Tier.
Any early fog should dissipate quickly after sunrise, leaving a sunny day across the region. Afternoon temperatures will climb to about 65 in Rochester, 66 in Syracuse and 67 in Geneva, with Ithaca and Elmira near 68. Some of the warmest lower-elevation locations could come close to 70.
Winds will remain light, generally from the west at less than 10 mph. No rain is expected, and cloud cover should remain sparse through the afternoon.
Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall quickly again Monday night. Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira will settle into the mid-30s to around 40, while Rochester is expected to remain milder near 45. Colder Southern Tier valleys could again approach the freezing mark, and patchy fog may redevelop late in the night in the normally fog-prone valleys.
Cooler air settles in Tuesday
A weak push of cooler air will arrive from the north Tuesday without producing rain. Skies should remain mostly sunny, but highs will be several degrees lower than Monday, ranging from the upper 50s near Rochester to the lower and middle 60s across the central and southern Finger Lakes and around Syracuse.
North to northeast winds will increase modestly, generally reaching 5 to 10 mph during the day. The cooler turn will be most noticeable in Rochester, where the forecast high falls from 65 Monday to 58 Tuesday. Geneva drops from 67 to 61, while Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira remain in the lower to middle 60s.
Tuesday night will be clear and cold again. Forecast lows range from about 33 in Elmira and 34 in Ithaca and Syracuse to 36 in Geneva and 39 in Rochester. Terrain will remain important: sheltered lower elevations may cool more sharply than nearby hills because clear skies and light winds favor rapid nighttime cooling.
Patchy valley fog will remain possible toward daybreak Wednesday, especially in and near the Southern Tier. The fog is expected to be localized rather than widespread and should lift during the morning.
Sunshine continues through Thursday
High pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday, maintaining sunshine and light winds. Highs should reach the upper 50s near Rochester and Geneva and the lower 60s from Ithaca to Elmira. Syracuse is expected to reach about 60.
Wednesday night will bring another round of efficient cooling under mostly clear skies. Lows should fall into the mid-30s in many inland communities, with upper 30s closer to Rochester and the Lake Ontario plain. The coldest valleys could dip lower than surrounding ridges, and pockets of fog may form again where temperatures fall fastest.
Thursday will remain sunny and dry as the broad area of high pressure holds. Afternoon highs are expected to range from about 60 near Rochester to the lower 60s across much of the Finger Lakes, Central New York and the Southern Tier. Northwest winds may become a little more noticeable during the afternoon, but speeds are forecast to remain modest.
The long run of dry days will allow afternoon humidity to fall. The Binghamton office said relative humidity could drop below 30% during peak heating at times this week, while fallen leaves continue to add dry material at the ground. Winds are expected to stay light on most days, limiting the overlap of the driest air and stronger wind, though forecasters will continue watching conditions as breezes increase later in the week.
A cooler Friday precedes a mild weekend
Another small temperature drop is expected Friday, with sunshine continuing. Highs are forecast near 55 in Rochester, 57 around Geneva and Syracuse and close to 60 in Ithaca and Elmira. Northerly winds should remain light, and no rain is expected.
Friday night will be among the colder nights of the period. Temperatures could fall into the lower 30s in parts of the Southern Tier and into the mid-30s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Clear skies and calm wind will again favor the lowest readings in valleys and other sheltered locations.
The weekend is expected to stay dry as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature. Saturday will be sunny with highs near 60 to 62 across most of the region. Light southerly wind will begin a gradual warmup, although Saturday night will still turn chilly, with lows mainly in the mid-30s to around 40.
Sunday should bring another mostly sunny day and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast in the mid-60s from Rochester and Geneva through Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira, with only light south to southwest wind and no meaningful chance of rain through the end of the weekend.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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