After a brief stretch of spring warmth, a sharp turn in the weather will bring rain, wind and a noticeable chill to the Finger Lakes and Central New York for the rest of the week.
The week starts on a quiet note Monday, but forecasters say conditions will deteriorate quickly by Tuesday before a soaking midweek rain and unseasonably cold air settle in through the weekend.
Warm and quiet start before changes arrive
Monday will be the best day of the week across the region, with high pressure delivering sunshine and mild temperatures. Highs are expected to reach the mid-60s to low 70s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Early morning frost and patchy valley fog are possible, especially in low-lying areas, but conditions will improve quickly after sunrise.
Southerly winds will begin to pick up late in the day and into the evening, signaling the approach of the next system.
Tuesday brings wind and scattered showers
By Tuesday, a strengthening low-pressure system moving into the Great Lakes will bring increasing winds and the return of unsettled weather.
Gusty winds could reach 40 to 50 mph in some areas, particularly across higher terrain. While showers are expected to develop, rainfall may be somewhat scattered and uneven, especially east of the Finger Lakes where dry air could limit how much rain reaches the ground.
A few isolated rumbles of thunder are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
Soaking rain arrives midweek
The most impactful weather of the week is expected Wednesday into early Thursday, when a more organized system moves through the region.
Forecasters say this system will tap into deeper moisture, bringing the potential for steady, soaking rainfall. Some areas could see around an inch of rain, with the heaviest precipitation falling Wednesday afternoon through overnight.
This will likely be the wettest period of the week and could lead to ponding on roads and minor drainage issues in poor drainage areas.
Sharp turn to colder, late-season chill
Behind the midweek system, a cold front will usher in a much colder air mass beginning Wednesday night.
Temperatures aloft are expected to drop significantly, setting the stage for below-average conditions through the end of the week. Daytime highs Thursday and Friday will struggle to reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees — well below typical late April values.
The colder pattern will also bring a mix of clouds and scattered showers, with the possibility of a few wet snowflakes mixing in at times, especially across higher elevations.
Chilly pattern lingers into the weekend
The cool, unsettled pattern is expected to persist into the weekend as a slow-moving upper-level system remains over the region.
While it won’t rain continuously, periods of clouds and scattered showers are likely each day. Overnight temperatures could dip into the low to mid-30s, raising the potential for frost in some areas — a concern for early-season planting.
A gradual warming trend may not arrive until late in the weekend or early next week.
For now, forecasters say residents should be prepared for a week that starts like spring but quickly feels more like early March.
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