XRP’s explosive rally this week has analysts divided. The cryptocurrency surged 20% to crack $3.25, sparking optimism for a run toward $3.80. But major whale sell-offs and rising exchange reserves are flashing red, putting the rally on edge.
XRP breakout rallies 20%—but whales move $108M to exchanges
XRP broke out of a descending trendline and formed a bullish flag, pushing prices as high as $3.25. As of Wednesday, it trades at $3.19, with support at $3.13 and resistance near $3.33.
Despite this strength, Whale Alert tracked two massive transfers—33.4 million XRP worth $108 million—sent to Coinbase. These moves often signal incoming sell pressure.
CryptoQuant also reports a rise in exchange reserves, further hinting at possible short-term profit-taking.
Charts still show a $3.80 target
Technical signals remain optimistic:
- Inverted head-and-shoulders pattern points to a $3.80 breakout
- Bollinger Bands confirm bullish momentum, but XRP sits near the upper band—a typical zone for consolidation
- RSI at 59 shows bullish room to run without being overbought
Traders are heavily skewed long. Current liquidation data shows $170M in long positions vs. $25M in shorts, meaning if sentiment flips, a sharp correction could follow.
Whale accumulation shows long-term confidence
Despite recent sell alerts, whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP accumulated $3.8 billion worth of tokens over four days. Analysts view this accumulation as a sign of long-term conviction.
This strategic buy-in aligns with broader optimism tied to:
- Ripple lawsuit progress
- ETF approval odds at 95%
- Ongoing exchange relistings
According to technical analyst Gert van Lagen, XRP’s breakout from a seven-year double-bottom structure could push prices toward $34 by mid-2026 using a Fibonacci projection model.
Overvaluation concerns linger
Still, fundamental metrics raise eyebrows. XRP’s $190 billion market cap is 2,200x larger than its $85 million total-value-locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama. That compares to Ethereum’s ratio of just 5.6.
With over 95% of circulating XRP supply currently in profit, historical data suggests the market could be nearing a local top—unless fresh momentum keeps the rally going.
XRP price outlook: Bullish, but fragile
- If XRP holds above $3.13 and breaks $3.33, analysts expect a test of the all-time high at $3.66, followed by the $3.80 target
- If bearish pressure grows, XRP could dip to $2.95, invalidating the bullish pattern
- Long-term projections still point to $27 to $34, assuming ETF approval and legal clarity continue to boost sentiment
Traders now watch $3.13 support and $3.33 resistance as key inflection points.
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