More than 1 million low-income households — many with children — could lose access to Section 8 housing under a proposal by the Trump administration, according to a new study from New York University.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), under Secretary Scott Turner, is considering a two-year time limit on rental assistance for non-elderly, non-disabled adults receiving public housing or Section 8 vouchers. The study, obtained by the Associated Press, projects the rule could impact up to 1.4 million households.
NYU study warns of widespread displacement
The NYU Furman Center’s analysis of 10 years of HUD data found that about 2.1 million households in subsidized housing include adults who are not elderly or disabled — roughly 70% of whom have already received housing support for more than two years.
If implemented, the time cap could displace over a million children, disproportionately affecting working families struggling to stay afloat in high-cost areas.
“Housing assistance is especially impactful for children,” said Claudia Aiken, co-author of the study. “Stable housing can meaningfully influence their health, education, and future earnings.”
Policy aimed at reform, critics cite risks
HUD Secretary Scott Turner said in a recent budget hearing that time limits are part of a broader effort to eliminate waste and encourage self-sufficiency among able-bodied adults.
“It’s broken and deviated from its original purpose, which is to temporarily help Americans in need,” Turner told Congress. “HUD assistance is not supposed to be permanent.”
Elderly and disabled individuals would be exempt, but researchers and housing authorities say the policy remains vague, especially in defining “disability” and enforcement mechanisms.
Failed pilot programs raise red flags
The study also examined 17 housing authorities that voluntarily tested time limits. Most imposed five-year caps with support services like job training. Eleven later abandoned the programs.
“This really requires local nuance and capacity,” said Jim Crawford, director of the Moving to Work Collaborative. “One-size-fits-all national implementation doesn’t work.”
HUD spokesperson Kasey Lovett countered the study’s concerns, saying long-term assistance can discourage work and that there is “plenty of data” supporting time restrictions.
Families already feeling the pressure
In Washington state, single mother Havalah Hopkins worries about what the new policy could mean for her and her teenage son. Since 2022, she’s lived in a two-bedroom public housing unit outside Seattle, paying $450 per month — roughly 30% of her income as a part-time caterer.
“I like that I can afford it,” she said. But if the policy passes, she may face eviction by 2026.
Local flexibility vs. national mandate
Some housing officials, like Shawnté Spears in San Mateo County, California, say time-limited programs can help families transition — but only with adequate support. Even then, the Bay Area’s extreme housing costs often force families back into waiting lists or rent burdens over 50% of their income.
“The support is there, but the rent pressure doesn’t go away,” said Spears.
What happens next?
The Trump administration has yet to release a formal rule proposal or timeline for implementation. If enacted, the policy could be one of the most sweeping reforms to federal housing aid in decades — with low-income working families bearing the brunt.
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