Cooler air and lingering clouds will settle across the Finger Lakes and Central New York Friday before a mostly sunny Halloween and a warmer start to November.
Highs will be near 57 degrees in Geneva and Syracuse Friday, with northwest wind gusts reaching the low to mid-20s mph, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. High pressure will build into the region tonight and support a mostly dry weekend.
Clouds linger behind Friday's cold front
A cold front moving east of the region early Friday will leave a northwest flow across the relatively warm lakes. That combination will keep clouds in place through much of the morning, with gradual or partial clearing later in the day.
A passing shower remains possible, especially early, but widespread or sustained rain is not expected. Syracuse's forecast allows for a chance of showers before 5 a.m. and mostly cloudy conditions during the day. Geneva is also expected to remain mostly cloudy, with little chance of measurable precipitation.
The cooler conditions will bring temperatures back close to normal for late October after the recent warmth. The broader regional forecast calls for afternoon highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s Friday and Saturday.
Northwest winds around 13 mph are expected in Geneva Friday, with gusts up to 23 mph. Syracuse will have northwest winds of 10 to 14 mph and gusts up to 24 mph.
Clouds may be slow to clear in some areas, including around Ithaca. The Weather Service expects drier air and daytime mixing to help break up the low cloud cover as the day progresses.
Winds ease as temperatures fall tonight
High pressure will move toward the lower Great Lakes Friday night, reducing the wind and beginning a longer stretch of quieter weather.
The point forecasts call for mostly cloudy skies overnight, with lows near 38 in Geneva and 36 in Syracuse. Northwest winds will ease, falling into the single digits at times as the night goes on.
Some fog could develop in sheltered valleys where winds become light. The Buffalo office identified that as a possibility rather than a widespread regional forecast.
On Lake Ontario, conditions will remain rougher for longer. Small craft advisories are in effect until 8 p.m. Friday along the western nearshore waters and until 2 a.m. Saturday farther east. Wind and waves are expected to diminish from west to east overnight.
Halloween stays mostly sunny and dry
Saturday will bring a quieter forecast as high pressure settles over the eastern Great Lakes. Mostly sunny skies are expected in Geneva and Syracuse, with highs near 57 in both places.
Northwest winds will be much lighter than Friday, generally no more than about 6 mph in those forecasts. The regional pattern continues to favor dry weather rather than another organized rain system.
Halloween night will turn cool under mostly clear skies in Geneva and partly cloudy skies in Syracuse. Overnight lows are forecast near 37 and 35, respectively, with light winds.
The forecast does not call for meaningful rainfall during the evening or overnight. The combination of cool temperatures and lighter winds will mark a change from Friday's breezier conditions.
The returning dry weather will also allow fine fuels and fallen leaves to dry out again through the weekend, according to the Weather Service in Buffalo.
A warmer Sunday begins November
Sunday's highs will climb to around 64 in Geneva and Syracuse as the weather pattern starts to shift. An upper-level ridge will build eastward, while surface high pressure gradually moves toward the southern New England coast.
Syracuse is expected to be mostly sunny. Geneva's forecast calls for partly sunny skies, with a light south wind around 6 mph.
The warmer pattern will extend into Sunday night. Mostly cloudy skies are expected, with lows near 47 in Geneva and 46 in Syracuse, noticeably milder than the preceding two nights.
Temperatures rise further early next week
Monday's highs are forecast near 66 in both Geneva and Syracuse. Geneva should be partly sunny, while Syracuse has a slight chance of rain showers after 1 p.m.
That small shower chance does not signal a widespread soaking. The larger regional pattern remains mostly dry, with high pressure and the ridge aloft expected to remain influential through the middle of next week.
Monday night will stay relatively mild, with lows near 49 in Geneva and 48 in Syracuse. Syracuse's slight shower chance extends into the early evening before mostly cloudy conditions prevail.
Tuesday will bring mostly cloudy skies and temperatures approaching 70 in some locations. The current point forecasts call for a high near 68 in Geneva and 69 in Syracuse, with light southeast winds.
More substantial rain may return later next week
The next opportunity for more meaningful rainfall looks most likely late Wednesday into Thursday, although the timing remains uncertain.
A larger weather system may move slowly east toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Forecast models differ considerably on how quickly it will arrive and how it will develop.
Once that system reaches the region, it could bring a wetter pattern lasting several days. The Weather Service has more confidence in the dry stretch beforehand than in the precise timing of that change.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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