A cool, mostly sunny Tuesday will give way to a sharp warmup across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with temperatures reaching the 70s Thursday before a chance of light rain arrives that night.
High pressure will keep most of the next several days dry, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Buffalo forecasters expect near-record warmth in parts of western New York and the Finger Lakes Thursday, while Binghamton forecasters place the better late-week shower chances near and north of the Thruway.
Morning clouds give way to a cooler Tuesday
Low clouds will move south early this morning, followed by improving skies. Additional clouds forming near the lake could linger around Rochester and the northern Finger Lakes through midmorning before dissipating around midday.
Patchy fog is also possible in inland lake and river valleys, including parts of the Finger Lakes and western Southern Tier. Around Geneva, the forecast includes patchy fog before 10 a.m., followed by mostly sunny skies. Farther south, sunshine will be more widespread during the day.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind Monday's cold front. Afternoon highs will reach about 50 in Rochester and 51 in Geneva, compared with 55 in Ithaca and 56 in Elmira. Syracuse will be near 53. The coolest conditions will generally be closer to the northern lakeshore, with somewhat milder readings farther inland and south.
Winds will remain light, generally from the north or east. Around Rochester, an east wind near 7 mph will accompany the sunshine, while much of the inland region will have winds around 3 to 5 mph.
High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through tonight. Partly cloudy skies will cover much of the region, although Rochester is forecast to become mostly cloudy. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 30s, with lows around 33 in Syracuse, 34 in Ithaca and Elmira, and 35 to 36 in Geneva and Rochester.
Localized valley fog remains possible Wednesday morning. Light winds and breaks in the clouds will allow inland locations to cool overnight, though the amount of cloud cover will affect how far temperatures fall.
Wednesday begins a quick warmup
A warm front will move through Wednesday as high pressure shifts east. The front will have little moisture to work with, allowing fair weather to continue while a warmer air mass moves into the region.
Highs will recover into the middle 60s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Rochester is forecast to reach 66, with Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse around 65 and Elmira near 64.
The warmer day will come with varying cloud cover. Partly sunny skies are expected in the northern Finger Lakes and around Syracuse, while Ithaca and Elmira are forecast to be mostly cloudy. Southeast winds will generally stay below 10 mph.
Wednesday night will be considerably milder than tonight. Lows will range from the middle 40s in the Southern Tier to around 50 near Rochester. Southerly winds and partly cloudy skies will accompany the warmer air ahead of Thursday's front.
Thursday temperatures climb into the 70s
Sunshine and southwest flow will bring the warmest weather of the week Thursday. Buffalo forecasters expect highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s in many lower-elevation locations, including near-record warmth around Rochester and parts of the Finger Lakes.
The local forecasts call for highs near 74 in Geneva, 73 in Rochester and Ithaca, 72 in Syracuse and 71 in Elmira. Rochester's southwest wind will increase to around 8 to 12 mph during the day.
Dry weather is expected through the daytime hours. Rain chances will rise Thursday evening and overnight as a weak cold front moves east, with showers possible into early Friday morning.
The better chance for rain will be across northern parts of the region. Rochester and Syracuse have about a 40% chance Thursday night, compared with 30% around Geneva and only a slight chance near Ithaca. Elmira's forecast remains largely dry with the passing front.
Rainfall is expected to be light. Buffalo forecasters expect amounts below a tenth of an inch from the Thursday-night showers, offering limited relief after the prolonged dry spell. Overnight temperatures will remain mild, generally in the lower to middle 50s.
Friday turns cooler before a dry Halloween
Any lingering showers will be concentrated early Friday, with the local forecasts placing them mainly before 8 a.m. Syracuse retains a 40% morning chance, while the chances are lower across the Finger Lakes and minimal around Elmira.
Mostly sunny skies will follow. High temperatures will fall back into the lower to middle 60s for much of the region, with Elmira closer to 67. Rochester will have a west wind around 10 mph.
Friday night will turn cooler under partly cloudy skies. Lows will fall into the upper 30s to around 40, followed by a partly sunny and dry Halloween Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Saturday-night lows are forecast in the middle 40s.
Rain chances return Sunday into next week
Clouds will increase Sunday, with temperatures remaining mild in the middle 60s. A few showers could arrive during the afternoon, but the more widespread chance for rain comes Sunday night into Monday.
Binghamton forecasters expect a low-pressure system to cross the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes, potentially bringing an end to the extended dry stretch. The system's track and timing remain uncertain, with most of Sunday afternoon still expected to be dry in their region.
Meanwhile, dry leaves and other fine vegetation will remain susceptible to fire. Buffalo forecasters said most of the region has gone nearly two weeks without measurable rain. Lighter winds will limit the overlap of strong gusts and low humidity, but Thursday night's light rainfall is expected to leave those fuels very dry.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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