Temperatures will climb into the 60s across the Finger Lakes and Central New York today, followed by a sunny Thursday in the 70s before a weak cold front brings cooler weather and a brief chance of light rain.
The warmup will come as high pressure moves east and winds turn southerly, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Buffalo forecasters say record warmth is possible in parts of western New York Thursday, while Binghamton forecasters expect most of the region to stay dry through the weekend.
High clouds thin as Wednesday warms
High clouds passing over the region this morning will continue through midday or early afternoon. Some sunshine will filter through the thin cloud cover, with more sun expected later in the afternoon as the clouds move east.
After early temperatures in the 30s, afternoon readings will reach the mid- to upper 60s. Rochester is forecast to reach about 67 degrees, while Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse reach around 66. Elmira will be near 65.
Winds will generally be light, turning southeast or south as the day progresses. Local forecasts call for speeds mostly below 10 mph. High pressure moving east will allow warmer air to return ahead of Thursday's front.
Wednesday night will be milder than the start of the day. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady southerly wind will accompany lows in the 40s to around 50, with the coolest readings in the Southern Tier valleys.
Elmira is forecast to fall to about 43 degrees and Ithaca to 45, while readings near the northern lakes and Thruway remain closer to 50. That milder night will precede the warmest afternoon of the week.
Sunny Thursday could approach records
Sunshine and southerly winds will push temperatures into the low to mid-70s Thursday. The National Weather Service expects readings roughly 15 degrees above average for late October across much of Central New York.
The current local forecasts put Rochester near 76 degrees, Ithaca and Syracuse near 75, Geneva near 74 and Elmira near 73. Buffalo forecasters say the Rochester area and Genesee Valley have the greatest potential for record warmth, helped by dry soils and air warming as it descends from higher terrain.
Winds will strengthen ahead of the front. Binghamton forecasters expect southwest winds of about 7 to 15 mph, while Buffalo forecasters say gusts could reach 35 mph in western New York, with the strongest winds northeast of Lake Erie.
The warmth will extend through much of the daylight period before the front approaches Thursday evening. Sunny daytime conditions will give way to more clouds at night, when the limited chance for rain reaches the region.
Light showers favor northern areas Thursday night
The best chance for showers will be near and north of the Thruway Thursday night. Rainfall will be light and uneven, with some southern locations expected to remain dry as the front moves through.
Rochester's forecast carries a 50% chance of showers between about 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Syracuse also has a 50% chance beginning after 8 p.m., compared with 40% in Geneva and 20% in Ithaca. Elmira's Thursday night forecast remains dry.
Buffalo forecasters expect only a few hundredths of an inch in many places, with totals generally below a tenth of an inch. The front will bring a more noticeable change in wind and temperature than in rainfall.
Overnight lows will stay in the upper 40s to low 50s as winds turn west behind the front. A few showers could linger into early Friday around Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse, with local forecasts ending that chance around 8 a.m.
Friday turns cooler and breezy
Friday will bring a return to more seasonable temperatures. Highs will generally range from the upper 50s in the northern Finger Lakes to the low 60s farther south, accompanied by a west to northwest wind.
Rochester is forecast to reach about 58 degrees, Geneva and Syracuse about 59, Ithaca around 61 and Elmira near 62. Morning clouds could linger in Central New York before sunshine becomes more widespread.
Wind gusts could reach 20 to 25 mph, according to Binghamton forecasters. High pressure will then build over the region Friday night, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and lows in the mid- to upper 30s.
Dry Halloween weekend follows
Saturday will be mostly sunny with light winds and highs in the upper 50s to around 60. The forecast remains dry for Halloween, with temperatures falling into the 30s overnight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Sunday is trending drier and sunnier than earlier forecasts suggested. Highs will recover into the low to mid-60s, with partly sunny skies and light winds as high pressure continues to influence the region.
Rain chances return early next week, although the timing of the next front remains uncertain. Current forecasts generally introduce showers Monday, with additional chances Tuesday and a greater chance for rain toward the middle of the week. Temperatures should remain seasonably mild, with highs mainly in the upper 50s to mid-60s.
The prolonged dry weather has dried leaf litter and other fine fuels, increasing wildfire risk, Buffalo forecasters said. Thursday night's light rain is unlikely to provide much relief before another dry weekend, although the strongest winds and lowest humidity are not expected to coincide at critical levels.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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