Sunshine will bring a milder Sunday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the 60s after a chilly start. Most of the coming week will stay dry, with a brief cooldown Tuesday and another warmup by Thursday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton.
A weak cold front Monday will bring a chance of light showers mainly to north-central New York, while most of the Finger Lakes stays dry. A second front could bring scattered rain Thursday into Thursday night, interrupting an otherwise largely rain-free stretch.
Sunday warms into the 60s
Temperatures around daybreak are expected to range from the mid-20s in colder inland spots to the upper 30s nearer the lakes. Clear skies, dry air and light winds will allow substantial cooling before sunrise, followed by a sizable recovery through the afternoon.
Patchy fog is possible early in the Finger Lakes lake valleys and Southern Tier river valleys. Around Elmira, fog is expected to thin by about 9 a.m., while localized fog near Geneva could linger until around 10 a.m. Sunshine will follow as the morning progresses.
Highs will reach about 68 in Geneva and 67 in Rochester, compared with around 62 in Ithaca and 64 in Syracuse and Elmira. South to southwest winds will generally stay light, around 5 to 6 mph at many locations, with lighter winds in parts of the Southern Tier.
High pressure will remain the main influence on Sunday's weather. Clouds higher in the atmosphere will begin increasing during the afternoon and evening, especially farther west, but rain is not expected during the day.
Sunday night stays milder with patchy valley fog
The night will be less cold than early Sunday. Increasing clouds and a developing flow of milder air will help keep overnight temperatures mainly in the mid-30s to upper 40s across western and central New York.
Lows will be near 45 in Rochester and 43 in Geneva and Syracuse. Farther south, Ithaca will fall to around 38 and Elmira to about 36, with generally light winds continuing overnight.
Fog could redevelop in sheltered valleys late in the evening or after midnight. Near Ithaca, patchy fog is possible toward daybreak Monday. Skies will vary from mostly clear in some southern locations to partly cloudy farther north.
Monday front brings limited shower chances
Monday will begin with another mild air mass in place. Highs will generally reach the mid-60s across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with Elmira approaching 69 before cooler air becomes established behind the front.
Some morning fog could linger until around 10 a.m. near the Finger Lakes and 11 a.m. around Elmira. Most locations will then have a mostly sunny day, although clouds will vary as the front moves through.
The Buffalo office expects the front to cross its region from late morning into early afternoon. Much of the lower atmosphere will be dry, limiting rainfall. Isolated to scattered light showers are more likely in north-central New York, where there will be more moisture available along the front.
The Binghamton office also allows for a low chance of a couple of showers or sprinkles with the front later Monday.
Winds will turn west during the day, generally around 5 to 10 mph across the Finger Lakes and Rochester area. Cooler air will follow Monday night, with clouds lingering in some northern locations and lows falling into the 30s across much of the region.
Tuesday turns cooler before another cold night
Tuesday will bring the coolest afternoon of the next several days. Highs will be near 51 in Rochester and 53 across Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse, while Elmira reaches around 56.
Sunshine or mostly sunny skies will accompany the cooler weather. Winds will come from the north or northeast, with dry conditions continuing as another area of high pressure builds in behind Monday's front.
Tuesday night will turn cold as winds weaken and skies have enough breaks for temperatures to fall. Lows will be around 29 in Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira, near 31 in Geneva and around freezing in Rochester. Colder outlying valleys could fall into the 20s.
Localized fog remains possible in river and lake valleys during the late-night and early morning hours through midweek.
Wednesday begins the next warmup
Temperatures will recover Wednesday as high pressure shifts east and a warm front brings a milder air mass into the region. The front will have little moisture to work with, allowing fair weather to continue.
Afternoon highs will return to the lower and middle 60s across much of the Finger Lakes, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Wednesday night will also be milder, with lows mostly in the 40s rather than the freezing temperatures expected the previous night.
Thursday could bring highs near 70 across much of the region. Shower chances increase as the next weak cold front approaches, with the Buffalo office allowing periodic showers Thursday into Thursday night and the Binghamton office placing the front's passage later Thursday night into Friday morning.
The chance of rain remains modest, and amounts and timing will depend on how much moisture reaches the front. Behind it, the broader pattern still favors mainly dry, unusually mild weather for late October into Saturday.
The Binghamton office said the prolonged dry stretch, combined with vegetation dying back for fall, is increasing fire weather concerns. Strong winds are not expected during the coming week, though winds could increase with the passing cold fronts.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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