A weak cold front will cross the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Monday, bringing changing clouds, a few stronger wind gusts and little rain before a cooler Tuesday. Temperatures will reach the mid- to upper 60s in much of the region, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton.
Most of the week will stay dry, with a quick return to warmer weather Wednesday and highs near 70 Thursday. The Buffalo and Binghamton forecasts place the next chance of scattered rain late Thursday into early Friday, with the greatest chances in northern parts of the region.
Monday stays mild as a front crosses
The front will move southeast across western and central New York from late morning into early afternoon. Dry air near the ground will keep most locations rain-free, even as clouds move through with the front and smaller disturbances overhead.
Isolated to scattered light showers will favor north-central New York late Monday morning through the afternoon. A few sprinkles or a brief shower could reach northern portions of Central New York, but rainfall coverage and amounts will be limited. The broader Finger Lakes forecast remains mainly dry.
Cloud cover will vary across the region. Rochester will have a mix of clouds and sunshine, while Geneva, Syracuse and locations farther south are forecast to have more sun during the day. Additional low clouds will develop behind the front later in the afternoon or evening.
Highs will reach about 65 in Rochester and 67 in Geneva and Syracuse. Ithaca and Elmira could reach about 69. At Syracuse, temperatures are expected to fall toward the lower 60s during the afternoon as the cooler air arrives.
West winds will generally run around 5 to 12 mph, with stronger gusts possible. Binghamton forecasters expect gusts of 15 to 20 mph to develop during the afternoon, and the Ithaca forecast includes gusts up to about 23 mph. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, then more northerly overnight.
Localized fog is possible around daybreak in inland lake and river valleys. The Geneva and Ithaca forecasts carry patchy fog through about 10 a.m., while Elmira's forecast allows fog through late morning. Fog coverage will depend partly on overnight cloud cover; Binghamton forecasters said higher clouds had reduced the likelihood of fog at the Elmira airport.
Clouds increase tonight before a cooler Tuesday
Cooler air moving across the relatively warm Great Lakes will help produce low clouds Monday evening and overnight. North to northeast winds will also push air up higher terrain, adding to the cloud cover across parts of western and central New York.
Those clouds are expected to be too shallow to produce precipitation. Mostly cloudy conditions will accompany overnight lows around the mid-30s in much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with Rochester closer to 40. Some colder inland locations farther north could drop into the 20s.
Tuesday will stay dry as high pressure builds from Canada toward northern New England. Any lingering lake clouds should break up by late morning, leaving a mostly sunny to sunny afternoon across much of the region.
The cooler air will hold highs to about 52 in Rochester, 53 in Geneva and 54 in Syracuse. Ithaca and Elmira will be a little warmer, reaching the mid- to upper 50s. North to northeast winds will generally be light, around 5 to 7 mph.
Tuesday night will bring another cold period as winds weaken and skies become partly cloudy or mostly clear. Lows near freezing are forecast for Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse, with Geneva around 33 and Rochester around 35. Colder north-central New York valleys could fall into the 20s.
Patchy valley fog could form again overnight into Wednesday morning. In the Finger Lakes, Geneva's forecast includes fog late Tuesday night through about 10 a.m. Wednesday.
Wednesday begins another warmup
High pressure will move east Wednesday, allowing a warm front with little moisture to cross the region. Fair weather will continue while south to southeast winds bring a warmer air mass back into western and central New York.
Partly sunny skies will accompany highs in the mid-60s across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The change will be substantial after Tuesday's cooler afternoon, with temperatures climbing roughly 10 degrees or more in many locations.
Wednesday night will be milder, too. Increasing clouds and southerly winds will accompany lows in the mid- to upper 40s across much of the region. Rochester and Geneva will remain near the upper end of that range, while the Southern Tier will be somewhat cooler.
Thursday warmth precedes a small rain chance
Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 70 or into the lower 70s. Southwest winds around Rochester and Geneva, and southerly winds farther east, will help maintain the unusually mild late-October weather.
Another weak cold front is expected to cross Thursday night. Scattered showers are possible along and ahead of it, continuing into early Friday in some locations. Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse carry about a 30% chance, while the chance is lower around Ithaca and much lower near Elmira.
The front is unlikely to bring a widespread soaking. Buffalo forecasters put the chance of a wetting rain very low, with dry weather continuing for most of the period through Saturday.
Friday should turn partly to mostly sunny after any early showers, with highs in the mid-60s to around 70. The early Saturday forecast remains mainly dry, with highs in the 60s and a mix of clouds and sunshine.
Dry leaves remain a fire concern
Buffalo forecasters said the region has gone nine days without measurable rain. The prolonged dry stretch has dried fine vegetation and fallen leaves, increasing wildfire risk even as temperatures fluctuate.
Monday's wind increase will come with more clouds and higher humidity than in recent days. Across the Binghamton forecast area, minimum afternoon relative humidity is expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s percent before rising later in the day. That increase eases some fire-weather concerns, although the limited rain chances offer little relief for dry vegetation.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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