Periods of rain and gusty winds will cross the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Friday, followed by a fast drop in temperatures that could bring a few wet snowflakes to parts of the region early Saturday.
The sharp change will unfold as a cold front moves from northwest to southeast during the day, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Friday will begin unusually mild, but temperatures will fall quickly behind the front before the coldest air of the fall so far settles over the region this weekend.
Rain and wind dominate Friday
The first round of rain will move through during the morning, with embedded heavier showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. A second, more organized band of showers is expected to accompany the cold front from late morning into the afternoon, reaching eastern portions of Central New York later in the day.
High temperatures will briefly reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in many communities before the front arrives. Rochester and Geneva are forecast to reach near 70, while Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse could climb into the lower 70s. Those readings will not last, with temperatures beginning to fall during the afternoon behind the front.
Rainfall totals will vary considerably. Much of the region can expect between one-quarter inch and 1 inch, although some downslope locations may receive less and higher terrain could approach the upper end of the range. A few places could exceed 1 inch if heavier showers or thunderstorms repeatedly cross the same area.
South to southwest winds will strengthen ahead of the front, then turn west and northwest after it passes. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The strongest gusts, near 40 mph, are more likely west of the Finger Lakes and in favored downslope areas.
The atmosphere will contain strong winds aloft, but limited sunshine and weak instability should keep the overall thunderstorm threat in check. A few storms could develop from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes from late morning through early afternoon, with gusty winds the main concern. The better chance for an isolated strong storm is expected farther southeast, toward the Catskills and northeastern Pennsylvania.
Rain will continue for a time after the front passes because the strongest upper-level support will trail the surface boundary. Showers should become lighter and less widespread from west to east Friday afternoon and evening, but clouds and brisk northwest winds will remain.
Colder air arrives Friday night
Temperatures will drop sharply Friday night as colder air pours into the region. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid- to upper 30s in Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira, with readings in the lower 30s or upper 20s possible in colder inland valleys and higher terrain.
Northwest flow across the lakes will generate another round of showers Friday night into early Saturday. Most of the precipitation will remain rain, but temperatures may become cold enough for wet snowflakes to mix in before daybreak, especially across higher elevations and parts of the Finger Lakes.
Any snow will be brief and spotty. Little or no accumulation is expected because ground temperatures remain relatively warm and the lake response will weaken quickly as drier air arrives. The most likely outcome is a short-lived mix of rain and wet snow before precipitation ends.
Northwest winds will remain noticeable through the night, with gusts near 25 to 30 mph in some areas. The combination of falling temperatures, wind and lingering showers will make Friday night feel much colder than the mild conditions earlier in the day.
Saturday turns chilly, then clears
Scattered lake-effect and upslope showers may linger Saturday morning, especially southeast of Lake Ontario and across higher terrain. A few wet snowflakes could still mix in early, but showers should end from west to east by late morning or early afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
Saturday will be the coldest day of the period. Highs will struggle to leave the 40s across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with upper 30s possible on the highest terrain. Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira are generally forecast to top out near 46 or 47 degrees.
Clouds may hold longer than initially expected in areas exposed to northwest flow, though breaks of afternoon sunshine should gradually develop. Winds will ease during the day as the pressure difference across the region weakens.
Clearing skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall rapidly Saturday night. Lows are expected to reach the upper 20s in colder Southern Tier valleys and the lower 30s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Widespread frost is likely, with freezing temperatures possible in many inland locations.
Sunshine begins a steady warmup
Sunday will begin cold, with frost lingering through the early morning in many communities. Sunshine and a southwest breeze will then start a quick recovery, lifting afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
High pressure is expected to remain in control through much of next week. A slow-moving coastal storm may drift north at times, but the strength and position of the high should keep its rain east and south of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Monday should be sunny with highs in the mid-60s after another cold start. Some normally colder valleys may see frost around daybreak, while most other areas begin in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday also looks sunny, with highs mainly in the mid-60s. Temperatures should continue to trend a little above normal later in the week as a broad area of warm, dry air settles over the eastern United States. Some warmer valleys could eventually approach 70, though the exact pace of the warmup will depend on overnight cooling and the position of the coastal system.
The dry pattern has relatively high confidence from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Forecast uncertainty is focused mainly on how warm afternoon temperatures become and whether the coastal low can move far enough north to increase cloud cover late in the period.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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