Low clouds will gradually give way to brighter intervals across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Thursday before a fast-moving storm brings widespread rain, gusty winds and much warmer air Friday. A sharp turn toward the coldest weather of the fall so far will follow Friday night and Saturday.
Thursday will be the quieter day in that sequence, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Morning cloud cover should thin in many areas by midday or early afternoon, although clouds will begin increasing again late in the day as the next system approaches.
Clouds thin for part of Thursday
The day will begin gray in much of the region as low clouds left behind by Wednesday's cooler air remain in place. The cloud deck should break up from late morning into early afternoon, allowing at least a limited period of sunshine before thicker clouds arrive from the west.
The amount of sun will vary across the region. Rochester is expected to remain mostly cloudy with a high near 58, while Geneva, Ithaca and Elmira should turn partly sunny with highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Syracuse could see more sunshine and a high near 60.
Winds will remain fairly light through most of the day, generally from the northeast or east. Dry weather should hold through the afternoon and much of the evening, making Thursday a brief pause between Wednesday's cool, cloudy conditions and the more active weather arriving overnight.
Clouds will thicken late Thursday as low pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes and moves toward southern Ontario. Temperatures should initially fall during the evening, then level off or rise late at night as a warm front crosses the region and southerly winds increase.
Rain and wind arrive overnight
Rain will spread into western portions of the region around midnight, then move quickly northeast through the Finger Lakes and Central New York before daybreak Friday. Rochester and Geneva are likely to see rain develop between late Thursday evening and the early overnight hours, while Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse should turn wet closer to midnight or shortly afterward.
Southeast winds will strengthen as the rain arrives. Gusts could reach around 25 to 30 mph late Thursday night in the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with stronger winds possible farther west near Lake Erie. Temperatures may climb into the 50s overnight rather than continuing to fall as warmer air moves north.
The first round of rain could produce one-tenth to one-half inch in many locations by Friday morning. Rain will become steadier overnight in western areas, while amounts may begin lighter across the Southern Tier before additional showers develop Friday.
No watches, warnings or advisories were in effect for New York from either weather service office early Thursday. The strongest winds described in the forecast remain below warning levels across most of the region, though Friday will be noticeably gusty.
Friday turns warm, wet and windy
Friday will bring a sharp but brief warmup as the region enters the warmer side of the storm. Highs should reach around 70 in Rochester and the lower 70s from Geneva through Ithaca, Elmira and Syracuse, roughly 20 degrees warmer than Saturday's expected readings.
Rain will be widespread at times during the morning, but a break or lighter period is possible as the warm front moves north. Another round of showers will accompany the system's cold front later in the day. A few thunderstorms could develop, especially from the Southern Tier into Central New York, where limited instability may briefly reach north before the front arrives.
The chance of thunderstorms is conditional and does not signal a widespread severe-weather episode. Any thunderstorm could help bring a stronger gust to the ground, but the more consistent wind will come from the broader storm system. Southwest gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected across much of the region Friday, with localized gusts near 40 mph possible west of the Finger Lakes and in other favored locations.
Rainfall totals will vary with terrain and the placement of heavier showers. Much of the region is expected to receive around one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch from Thursday night through Friday, while some higher terrain could approach 1 inch. Localized amounts above 1 inch are possible where a thunderstorm or terrain enhancement produces heavier rain, but the forecast does not indicate a widespread flood threat.
The cold front will cross Friday afternoon or evening. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind it, winds will turn northwest and rain showers will continue for a time Friday night. Lows will drop into the mid- to upper 30s across much of the Finger Lakes, Central New York and the Southern Tier.
A brief taste of early winter Saturday
Saturday will be sharply colder, with highs generally only in the mid-40s and upper 30s possible over the highest terrain. Northwest winds around 15 mph, with higher gusts early, will make the change from Friday's lower 70s feel especially abrupt.
Cold air crossing the Great Lakes will support scattered rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning. A few wet snowflakes or flurries could mix in before daybreak or early Saturday, mainly over higher terrain and in favored lake-effect areas. No accumulation is expected, and the lake response should remain brief as drier air arrives.
Showers will taper during Saturday morning, with clouds breaking for some afternoon sunshine. Saturday night will be clear and cold as high pressure settles over the region. Lows are expected to fall to around 30 in Ithaca and Elmira, the lower 30s around Syracuse and Geneva, and the mid-30s in Rochester. Colder rural valleys could dip into the 20s.
Sunshine and a gradual warmup follow
Sunday will begin a quieter stretch with sunny skies and highs near 60. Winds will turn southwest, starting a gradual return to milder air after the short-lived weekend chill.
Clear to mostly clear conditions will continue Sunday night, with lows ranging from the mid-30s in the Southern Tier to near 40 around Rochester. Monday should stay sunny with highs in the lower to mid-60s, followed by another mainly dry day Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds.
The early-week pattern carries higher confidence than the exact details farther out. High pressure is expected to keep the region tranquil through at least Monday while southwest flow allows temperatures to recover to near or slightly above mid-October levels.
FL1 FORECAST: Cloudy, cooler Wednesday precedes widespread Friday rain and a Saturday chill Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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