Mostly dry weather and a mix of sun and clouds will settle across the Finger Lakes and Central New York today, with a cool Labor Day ahead before temperatures climb toward midweek.
A few light showers could linger in the Finger Lakes early this morning, but high pressure will bring a largely dry stretch through Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton.
Early showers give way to a dry Sunday
The early shower chance comes from cool air moving across the warmer waters of Lake Ontario. North-northeast winds are carrying lake clouds south of the lake, with higher terrain helping produce a few light showers. The Finger Lakes have the best chance of seeing that limited rain through early this morning.
That lake influence should fade as high pressure builds south from the upper Great Lakes. Lower clouds and reduced visibility are expected to improve after sunrise, with conditions improving across the region by midmorning.
Farther east, an isolated shower may develop toward the Catskills and Poconos later today, although even there the atmosphere is continuing to dry. Most of Central New York should stay dry as sunshine mixes with scattered clouds that develop with daytime heating.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for early September. Highs today and on Labor Day are expected to range from the upper 60s to the mid-70s, keeping the remainder of the holiday weekend on the cool side.
Clouds and some lingering wind are limiting widespread fog early today. Low clouds and fog may still reduce visibility around Ithaca and Elmira before improving by midmorning. Syracuse is expected to avoid the lower clouds and visibility affecting some locations farther south.
Lake Ontario will have a somewhat breezier stretch through this afternoon. North-northeast winds of 12 to 17 knots could produce waves of 2 to 3 feet along the south-central and southeastern portions of the lake. Those conditions should ease as high pressure settles over the lower Great Lakes.
A clear, cool night before Labor Day
Skies will turn mostly clear tonight as high pressure moves over the region. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the mid-40s to lower 50s, continuing the early fall feel into Monday morning.
With fewer clouds and winds becoming light or calm, valley fog will have a better opportunity to form than it did early Sunday. The Southern Tier is among the areas where fog could become locally thick late tonight and early Monday.
The difference will be the amount of overnight cooling. Clouds and wind have interrupted that process in some places, but clearer, calmer conditions will allow temperatures to fall more readily. Valley locations will be most prone to the resulting fog.
Labor Day itself is expected to remain dry. High pressure will keep the region in the same general pattern, with temperatures again reaching the upper 60s to mid-70s after the cool start.
Winds over the lower Great Lakes should become mainly light as the high settles in. Little wave action is expected there during the first part of the week, a quieter pattern than Sunday's north-northeast flow on Lake Ontario.
Tuesday begins a warming trend
Another mostly clear, cool night Monday will favor valley fog into Tuesday morning. The next two nights offer better conditions for that familiar late-night and early-morning fog pattern as winds become calmer beneath high pressure.
Dry weather is expected to continue through the day Tuesday. Temperatures will begin edging upward as warmer air starts working into the region, marking the first step away from the holiday weekend's cooler conditions.
The warming should become more noticeable Wednesday, when highs are forecast to reach the mid-70s to lower 80s. That warmer air will arrive ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to bring the first broader opportunity for rain after the dry start to the week.
Rain chances increase late Wednesday
The next low-pressure system is expected to travel north of the Great Lakes through Ontario and Quebec Wednesday into Thursday. Its trailing cold front will extend south across the Great Lakes and eventually move through the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
The best chance for rain is late Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the frontal system potentially passing through early Thursday. Buffalo expects showers to become likely Wednesday, with a chance of thunderstorms. Binghamton also places the highest shower chances later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Some thunder could be embedded in the rain, but the potential for stronger thunderstorms has diminished in the latest forecast. Models have been trending toward a weaker front, and the atmosphere may have little of the instability needed to support more vigorous storms.
Although winds higher in the atmosphere could help organize storms if they develop, the current forecast suggests rain may be driven more by air rising near the front than by strong thunderstorm development. That distinction leaves a good chance for rain while reducing confidence in a stronger storm threat.
The exact timing remains uncertain. A passage late Wednesday would bring the change earlier, while a slower arrival could extend the main period of unsettled weather into early Thursday.
Cooler weather returns late in the week
A few showers could linger or return Thursday. There is still uncertainty about whether a second front moving through late Thursday or early Friday will generate additional rain, so the forecast does not yet establish a completely dry start to that period.
Confidence is higher in the pattern that follows. High pressure is expected to build behind the fronts, bringing cooler, dry weather toward the end of the week and into the first part of next weekend.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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