Patchy valley fog will give way to mostly sunny skies Thursday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s as a weak cold front moves through without rain.
The dry pattern will hold through the weekend and into early next week, bringing a cooler Friday, several cold nights and a steady daytime warmup by Sunday and Monday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton (Buffalo forecast and Binghamton forecast).
Early fog clears for a mild Thursday
Patchy fog is forecast before daybreak in parts of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, especially in sheltered lake and river valleys where winds become light. Visibility should improve by midmorning as daytime heating mixes the shallow moisture near the ground.
Outside those fog-prone valleys, Thursday will begin partly cloudy before sunshine becomes more widespread. High temperatures are expected to reach about 60 degrees in Rochester and Geneva and around 62 in Ithaca, Syracuse and Elmira.
Most of the morning cloud cover will remain well above the ground and should break as the day progresses. The approaching front has little moisture to work with, so the change will be more noticeable in the wind and temperature pattern than in the sky.
A weak cold front will cross the region during the afternoon, but the air mass is too dry to support showers. Northwest winds will increase as the front passes, with some gusts around 20 mph possible in Central New York and the Southern Tier.
The front may also produce scattered patches of clouds downwind of Lake Ontario and across higher terrain. Those clouds are expected to remain too shallow to generate precipitation, leaving Thursday dry throughout the region.
Winds will ease again Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Some lake-generated clouds may linger for a time south and southwest of Lake Ontario, but the broader trend will be toward clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Another cold, foggy start Friday
Skies will be partly cloudy Thursday night as winds turn north to northeast behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the mid-30s in many inland communities, while Rochester remains closer to 40 degrees.
Areas of fog are likely to return late Thursday night and early Friday in the same sheltered valleys. The Weather Service expects the fog to remain localized and shallow, with clearing during the morning.
Friday will be cooler but still bright, with mostly sunny skies and light north or northeast winds. Afternoon highs should range from the mid-50s near Rochester and Syracuse to the upper 50s around Ithaca and Elmira.
High pressure settling over the Northeast will allow temperatures to fall sharply Friday night. Lows are forecast near 27 degrees in Elmira, around 30 in Ithaca and Syracuse, about 31 in Geneva and near 32 in Rochester, with some colder rural valleys possibly reaching the mid-20s.
That will create another period of frost and freezing temperatures across much of the interior. Friday night is expected to be the coldest part of the forecast for many communities, especially away from the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline.
Sunshine and warmer afternoons this weekend
Saturday will begin cold, and a few valleys may again see patchy fog near sunrise. Sunshine will dominate after the fog lifts, with light winds and highs around 61 to 62 degrees across much of the region.
Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and 30s Saturday night. Elmira is forecast near 29 degrees, Ithaca near 32, Syracuse near 34, Geneva near 35 and Rochester near 38, continuing the sharp difference between mild afternoons and cold overnight valleys.
Sunday will be the warmer half of the weekend as the center of high pressure shifts east and a light southerly flow develops. Skies should stay sunny after any early valley fog, with highs reaching the mid-60s from Rochester and Geneva east through Syracuse and south through Ithaca and Elmira.
Sunday night will remain mostly clear, but it should not be as cold as the previous two nights. Forecast lows range from the mid-30s near Elmira to the lower and mid-40s around Geneva, Syracuse and Rochester.
Dry weather continues into next week
Monday is expected to stay mostly sunny and mild. Highs should reach the mid-60s near Rochester and Syracuse and the upper 60s around Geneva, Ithaca and Elmira, making it the warmest day of the five-day stretch in several communities.
Another weak cold front may move through early next week, but current forecasts show little moisture available for rain. Clouds should increase Monday night before partly sunny skies return Tuesday.
That front is expected to weaken the ridge without fully dislodging the dry air over the region. The main effect should be a change in wind direction and a modest drop in daytime temperatures rather than a period of unsettled weather.
Tuesday will turn cooler behind that front, with highs ranging from the mid-50s near Rochester and Geneva to around 60 in Ithaca and Elmira. Winds should remain light, and the forecast remains dry.
The outlook for Wednesday continues the quiet pattern with partly sunny skies and highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Confidence is lower at that range, but neither Weather Service office shows a meaningful rain system approaching the region through the middle of next week.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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