The Finger Lakes and Central New York will start Labor Day weekend with partly sunny skies and cooler temperatures today, with only a few showers interrupting an otherwise mostly dry forecast.
High pressure will keep much of the holiday weekend quiet, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Patchy valley fog will return at night, and temperatures will stay near or slightly below early September averages before warmth and humidity build ahead of a midweek cold front.
A few showers possible Saturday
Most of today will be dry, but small disturbances passing through the region will leave a chance for isolated showers. The better opportunity in Central New York will come during the afternoon, particularly over higher elevations and farther east toward the Catskills.
A separate area of showers could develop east of Lake Ontario across the North Country late this morning and this afternoon. That area also has a greater chance of lower clouds as moisture increases ahead of the next disturbance. Conditions farther west are expected to remain predominantly dry.
The showers will develop as cooler air moves through the atmosphere above the region. A slow-moving weather system near the Canadian Maritimes is sending weak disturbances south and east across neighboring parts of Canada and the Northeast, where they can interact with moisture still in place.
That pattern supports limited shower coverage rather than a broad period of steady rain. Sunshine will mix with clouds across Central New York, and north winds will become a little breezy during the afternoon, generally running between 7 and 15 mph.
Temperatures will be cooler but close to normal for early September. The weekend forecast keeps the region near or a little below average as high pressure gradually moves southeast from the upper Great Lakes.
Valley fog returns overnight
Early morning fog will be uneven today. Clouds slowed overnight cooling in parts of Central New York, while clearer skies and calm winds left the Elmira area more favorable for fog formation. Conditions are expected to improve by midmorning.
The same general ingredients will remain in place for patchy fog on subsequent nights: leftover moisture, cool temperatures and light winds. River valleys in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier will be susceptible, along with some areas east of Lake Ontario.
Fog and low clouds may briefly reduce visibility during the late-night and early morning hours even while the broader weather pattern remains dry. The overnight fog forecast does not signal a return to widespread rain.
As high pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes, the nighttime weather will depend in part on how much skies clear. Calm, clear conditions allow temperatures to fall and favor fog in the valleys, while more persistent clouds can limit that cooling.
Sunday stays mostly dry
Sunday will bring another mostly dry day as high pressure continues its slow move toward the mid-Atlantic. Central New York is expected to have mostly sunny skies after any early fog or low clouds improve.
There is still a small shower chance within the broader western and north-central New York forecast. Buffalo forecasters allow for a few widely scattered or isolated showers as weak disturbances pass through during the weekend. The overall pattern remains primarily dry, with no prolonged rain period expected through Labor Day.
Daytime temperatures will remain seasonable. The more noticeable temperature change will come Sunday night, when conditions look favorable for a chilly start to the holiday itself.
Lows are forecast to fall into the mid-40s to low 50s across most of the Binghamton forecast region. A few colder locations could reach the lower 40s by early Monday morning. Clear skies and favorable nighttime cooling will help produce those lower readings.
Labor Day and Tuesday remain quiet
Labor Day will continue the stretch of generally dry weather. High pressure should support mostly sunny conditions across Central New York, with daytime temperatures again close to early September averages.
Patchy morning fog will remain part of the forecast, particularly in the valleys. The holiday begins after one of the cooler nights in the outlook, but the daytime pattern remains dominated by high pressure.
The mainly dry stretch is expected to extend into Tuesday. Fog is also possible Monday night into early Tuesday, with low clouds or reduced visibility early in the day before conditions improve.
A larger change begins Tuesday night and early Wednesday as winds higher in the atmosphere turn southwesterly and carry warmer, more humid air into the region. That will set up a distinctly warmer day ahead of the next front.
Warmth and humidity build Wednesday
Wednesday temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s ahead of a cold front. Humidity will rise as well, with dew points likely reaching the mid-60s to low 70s.
A stronger low-pressure system could pass well north of the Great Lakes and pull the front through the region. Because the center of that system is expected to stay to the north, much of the precipitation may be concentrated near the frontal passage itself.
The timing is still uncertain. Binghamton forecasters place the most likely window between early Wednesday evening and midday Thursday, leaving uncertainty about when showers and thunderstorms will cross individual parts of the region.
Some storms could become stronger and produce heavy rain and gusty winds, depending on the timing of the front. That possibility remains conditional; the forecast does not establish a widespread severe weather event.
Cooler air follows Thursday
Temperatures are expected to fall back into the 70s Thursday as the front moves through. Dew points will drop through the 60s, beginning a transition away from Wednesday's more humid air.
By Friday, daytime highs are forecast to range from the mid-60s to low 70s. Dew points should fall into the 50s, bringing a less humid air mass behind the midweek system.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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