Brighter and less humid weather is settling over the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Friday after overnight showers and patches of low cloud and fog, with only a limited chance for a few more showers or thunderstorms later today before a quieter Labor Day weekend takes hold.
The overall pattern is turning calmer, but not all at once, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Early clouds and a few leftover showers are expected to give way to partial sunshine in many communities this afternoon, while the better chance for any additional rain holds near the Southern Tier and the southeastern edge of Central New York before cooler, drier air fully settles in for the weekend.
Friday turns brighter, but not perfectly dry
The unsettled stretch that brought rounds of rain and thunderstorms earlier this week is still close enough to keep the region from flipping into a completely clear day right away. Showers that moved through before sunrise were expected to keep pushing east through the morning, and some patchy fog or lingering low clouds could hold on into midmorning in places that stayed damp overnight.
That should leave much of the region in a transition pattern through the first part of the day. Communities across the Finger Lakes and north through the Syracuse area are expected to see improving weather as the morning goes on, while places closer to the Pennsylvania line and higher terrain farther south may hold onto clouds a little longer.
By late morning and afternoon, both forecast offices point to a better mix of sun and clouds with lower humidity than the last couple of days. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid-70s to lower 80s, which is still seasonable for early September but less muggy than the air mass that fed Thursday's rain and storms.
The chance for more rain later today looks narrow rather than widespread. Buffalo forecasters keep the better odds for scattered showers or a thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier, while Binghamton says a weak disturbance moving southeast could clip parts of Central New York and nearby southern areas with isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening.
That keeps the forecast from being completely settled, but it also keeps the risk in proportion. Binghamton said strong or severe storms are not expected across its forecast area today, and Buffalo's forecast suggests the more organized wet weather is continuing to slide south and away from most of the Finger Lakes. The main short-term message is that today trends brighter for most of the region even if a few communities still pick up a brief shower before evening.
The weekend pattern takes over
Friday night marks the more meaningful handoff in the forecast. High pressure building south from Canada and ridging over the Great Lakes are expected to push the remaining frontal boundary farther away, allowing a more stable and noticeably drier stretch to settle over western and central New York.
Saturday looks cooler than the weather earlier this week, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid-70s and lower humidity across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Buffalo's forecast leans dry across western and north-central New York, while Binghamton leaves room for a few isolated showers Saturday afternoon or evening, especially toward the Mohawk Valley and Catskills. That adds some uncertainty on the eastern fringe of the forecast area, but it does not point to a broad wet day across the region.
Northwest winds may be a little breezy at times Saturday, especially across Central New York, which should reinforce the cooler feel. Even where clouds increase for a time, the larger weekend trend still favors a break from the repeated downpours and high humidity that shaped the first half of the week.
Sunday continues that cooler pattern with a bit more sunshine expected in many places. Highs should stay in the upper 60s to low 70s in much of Central New York and the low to mid-70s around the Finger Lakes, keeping temperatures near or slightly below normal for the holiday weekend.
Labor Day itself is shaping up as one of the cleaner forecast periods in the stretch. Binghamton expects plenty of sunshine, light winds and comfortable temperatures Monday afternoon, while Buffalo also keeps the holiday in the mainly dry portion of the forecast. Tuesday is expected to stay mostly sunny to partly sunny with mild temperatures before the next broader change begins to take shape.
Fog becomes part of the quieter stretch
The calmer weekend pattern comes with one repeating feature that could matter in the usual low-lying areas. Both forecast offices expect valley fog to become more common during the late-night and early-morning hours as skies clear, winds stay light and leftover ground moisture lingers from the recent wet weather.
Buffalo specifically points to fog potential in the Finger Lakes, the western Southern Tier and areas east of Lake Ontario. Binghamton also expects more widespread valley fog by Sunday night into Monday morning as high pressure settles overhead. That means the brightest part of the forecast will often arrive after daybreak rather than before it, especially in river valleys and other sheltered spots.
Midweek storm chances return, but timing is still broad
The drier holiday stretch is not expected to last through all of next week. Binghamton's longer-range forecast points to an upper-level trough moving toward the Northeast during the middle to latter part of the workweek, which would bring warmer air, rising humidity and the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures are expected to edge back into the mid-70s to low 80s once that next system approaches, with dew points climbing back into the 60s. Even so, the timing is still broad enough that forecasters are not locking in exactly when the next round of unsettled weather arrives or how quickly it clears.
For now, the clearest signal in the forecast is the near-term shift already underway: a brighter Friday after early damp weather, a cooler and less humid weekend, recurring valley fog during the quiet nights, and the next meaningful storm chance waiting until the middle of next week.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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