Improving but uneven weather is settling over the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Thursday after overnight rain and thunderstorms, with clouds and a few lingering showers holding on longest across the western Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and parts of Central New York before a broader drying trend takes over for the holiday weekend.
The bigger regional flood concern from earlier in the week eased before daybreak, but the forecast is not completely finished with wet weather just yet, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. A localized flood warning remained in east-central Monroe County early Thursday after heavy rain pushed Irondequoit Creek and nearby low-lying spots toward flooding, while the rest of the region heads into a cooler, less humid stretch by Friday night and through Labor Day.
Thursday starts damp, then turns unevenly brighter
The early part of Thursday is still carrying the leftovers from the departing system that brought the region a wetter, more humid pattern. Rain and embedded thunderstorms were expected to keep weakening and sliding south through the morning, while low clouds and fog hold down visibility in a few spots until after sunrise.
That should leave much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York in a transition pattern rather than a washout. Forecasters expect high pressure and slightly drier air to start pressing in from the northeast this afternoon, allowing at least partial clearing across a good share of the region even though clouds will continue to bubble up through the day.
Temperatures are expected to rebound once sun breaks through, with most communities climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Morning cloud cover may keep readings in check for a while, but the forecast still points to a fairly comfortable afternoon compared with the stickier weather from the last two days.
The sharpest difference across the region will be from north and east to west and south. Areas closer to Syracuse and the eastern half of Central New York should have a better shot at seeing longer dry stretches, while the western Finger Lakes, the Southern Tier and communities nearer the Pennsylvania line remain closer to the stalled boundary and the next weak disturbance moving through the northwesterly flow aloft.
That matters late this afternoon and tonight, when another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may redevelop. The Buffalo forecast keeps the more persistent activity focused across the western Southern Tier, while Binghamton points to the western Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania as the most likely corridor for additional storms. The broader severe-weather setup looks weaker than it did earlier this week, but a stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out along the southwestern edge of the region and any slow-moving storm could still produce locally heavy rain.
The higher concern from a hazards standpoint remains fairly narrow. Binghamton's hazardous weather outlook said the probability of widespread hazardous weather is low, though it still flagged a marginal risk for locally heavy rain and possible flooding where storms linger tonight in Steuben and Chemung counties. Buffalo's outlook, covering Monroe, Wayne, Ontario, Livingston and nearby counties, said no hazardous weather is expected at this time.
The one notable holdover problem was in Monroe County, where the Buffalo office said a flood warning remains in effect until 9:45 p.m. Thursday for east-central parts of the county. The warning covers flooding along Irondequoit Creek and other flood-prone locations after 1 to 2 inches of rain fell Wednesday night, with Ellison Park and areas near Blossom Road specifically mentioned in the warning text.
Friday still carries a few leftover showers
Friday looks quieter overall, but not perfectly dry everywhere.
Both forecast offices keep some lingering shower and thunderstorm chances in place as another upper-level disturbance and a surface trough slide through. The best chance again appears to favor the Southern Tier and nearby western sections of the Finger Lakes, with Binghamton keeping that risk mainly west of Interstate 81 and Buffalo still carrying a few scattered showers and storms across western New York through the morning.
Even with that leftover activity, the atmosphere should not be as supportive of stronger storms. Forecasters say the better instability and wind shear stay south of the region Friday, which should keep any thunderstorms disorganized and below severe levels.
Friday's temperatures should stay seasonable, and the air will begin to feel less humid as the day goes on. That gradual change is the more important part of the setup, because it marks the start of a more stable pattern that should hold into the weekend instead of another broad round of soaking rain.
Cooler, drier stretch takes over for the weekend
By Friday night, the larger-scale pattern turns more favorable for a real break.
High pressure building down from Canada and ridging across the Great Lakes is expected to bring drier weather and cooler air through Saturday, Sunday and Labor Day. High temperatures through the weekend should mostly stay in the 70s, running several degrees below the warmth felt earlier this week, and nighttime lows are expected to settle back into the 50s and low 60s.
That should make the weekend feel noticeably more comfortable, especially once dew points come down. The current forecast does not point to a washout at any point from Saturday through Monday, and both offices describe the holiday stretch as the quietest part of the forecast.
The tradeoff with clearer skies and lighter winds is that patchy valley fog may become a recurring issue during the late-night and early-morning hours. Buffalo specifically highlighted fog potential in the Finger Lakes, western Southern Tier and areas east of Lake Ontario, while Binghamton also expects at least some early-day fog each morning before conditions improve.
For most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, that leaves the weekend forecast in a fairly straightforward place: mainly dry days, seasonable temperatures and lower humidity after Thursday's uneven conditions and Friday's last stray shower risk.
Warmer air may return next week
The steadier quiet stretch is not expected to last indefinitely.
Binghamton's forecast points to a slow rebound in warmth and humidity during the middle of next week as high pressure shifts and southerly flow begins to return. That change would also bring the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms sometime in the midweek period, although the timing is still broad at this point.
For now, the clearest part of the forecast is the short-term transition: Thursday still has some leftover rain and a localized flood issue in Monroe County, Friday may keep a few spotty showers around farther south and west, and the Labor Day weekend is trending drier, cooler and calmer across the region.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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