After two days of chilly rain, gusty winds, and soggy conditions across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, the weather is finally expected to improve in time for Memorial Day afternoon cookouts, ceremonies, and outdoor events.
Forecasters say another round of rain moved through the region overnight into early Sunday morning, with additional showers expected throughout the first half of the day. By Monday though conditions will have rapidly improved.
The National Weather Service says saturated ground conditions from repeated rainfall could still lead to isolated minor flooding issues in poor drainage and flood-prone areas through Monday morning, especially where heavier downpours develop overnight.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service offices in Binghamton and Buffalo say the latest wave of rain is tied to another disturbance moving through the Northeast alongside a strong low-level jet stream that has kept moisture flowing into the region throughout the holiday weekend.
Some areas east of the Genesee Valley and across Central New York could pick up another quarter to half-inch of rain before showers taper off.
Memorial Day improving after wet start
The holiday itself is expected to begin gray and damp across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with lingering showers and low clouds during the morning hours.
Rain is forecast to gradually end from west to east through late morning, with drier air arriving behind the departing system. By Monday afternoon, sunshine is expected to break out across much of the region, bringing noticeably better conditions for parades, barbecues, and outdoor gatherings later in the day.
Temperatures Monday afternoon are expected to rebound into the 70s in many inland locations, though lakeshore communities may stay slightly cooler due to developing lake breezes.
Forecasters say Monday evening could end up being one of the more pleasant stretches of the entire holiday weekend after the prolonged stretch of raw weather.
Wind and travel impacts continue Sunday
While the heaviest rain is expected to gradually move out, breezy conditions will continue Sunday across portions of the region.
Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph remain possible across higher elevations and parts of the Tug Hill Plateau, while lower elevations across Western New York could still see occasional gusty conditions through the day.
Aviation forecasters also warned of reduced visibility, low cloud ceilings, and periods of IFR travel conditions through Sunday night into early Monday due to fog, rain, and low clouds.
Boaters on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will also continue to encounter rougher conditions through Sunday before calmer weather returns Monday.
Warmer and drier pattern taking shape
The good news for residents hoping for a more summer-like pattern is that forecasters expect a much drier and warmer stretch to develop after Memorial Day.
Weather models continue to show a large blocking pattern developing across North America that should cut off Gulf moisture and significantly reduce widespread rain chances through most of the upcoming week.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday are expected to climb into the 70s and low 80s in many areas, with mostly dry conditions dominating the forecast.
Forecasters say only isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible midweek due to limited moisture availability.
Longer-range guidance also hints at cooler air potentially returning late next week into next weekend, with even some early concerns about patchy frost in colder inland valleys if the coldest air shifts far enough west into New York.
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