A stretch of unsettled weather is taking hold across the Finger Lakes this week, bringing gusty winds, multiple rounds of rain, and a notable drop in temperatures heading into the weekend.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service say back-to-back low pressure systems will drive changing conditions through at least Thursday, followed by a colder pattern that could even bring frost to parts of the region.
Wind and scattered rain kick off the week
Tuesday starts with the most immediate impact: strong winds and passing rain.
A wind advisory is in effect across parts of the region, including Ontario County, Yates County, Seneca County, and Schuyler County, where gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected through the afternoon.
The wind is being driven by a strong low-pressure system tracking north of the Great Lakes, pulling in a surge of southerly air. That same system will also bring scattered showers, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall today is expected to be light, generally under a quarter inch, with some areas seeing only brief periods of rain.
More significant rain arrives midweek
The bigger weather story unfolds Wednesday into early Thursday.
A second, more organized system will move into the region, bringing steadier and more widespread rainfall. Forecasters say this round could produce between three-quarters of an inch to more than an inch of rain across much of the Finger Lakes.
That amount of rain, combined with already wet ground conditions, could lead to ponding in low-lying areas and rising water levels in creeks and streams. While widespread flooding is not expected, localized issues are possible, especially in areas prone to poor drainage.
Rain is expected to taper off by Thursday afternoon, with some breaks of sun possible later in the day.
Cooler air settles in, frost possible
Behind the midweek system, a noticeable shift in the pattern arrives.
A large upper-level low will settle over the Northeast, bringing below-average temperatures from Thursday through the weekend. Daytime highs are expected to fall into the 40s and low 50s, with overnight lows dipping into the 30s — and possibly the upper 20s in some spots.
That raises the potential for frost or even a light freeze during overnight hours, particularly Thursday night through Saturday night. The exact extent will depend on cloud cover and wind conditions, but it’s something forecasters say will need to be watched closely as the growing season begins.
In addition to the cooler air, scattered showers will remain possible at times, and a few wet snowflakes could mix in overnight across higher elevations.
Gradual improvement early next week
Conditions are expected to slowly improve early next week as the system weakens and moves away. Temperatures should begin to moderate, though some lingering shower chances may stick around.
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