A warm, unsettled pattern will take hold across the Finger Lakes today, setting the stage for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms — including the potential for strong to severe weather by late afternoon and evening.
The day will begin on a relatively quiet note for many areas, though early morning fog and a weakening line of showers moving in from the west could briefly impact parts of the region around sunrise. That initial activity is expected to lose strength as it moves east, giving way to a lull and some breaks in the weather heading into midday.
By the afternoon, conditions will become increasingly favorable for storm development. Temperatures climbing into the mid-70s to near 80 degrees, combined with rising humidity, will help fuel atmospheric instability. Forecast models indicate moderate instability levels and strong wind shear — a combination that can support organized storms, including the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms.
Storms are expected to develop or move into the region from the west during the late afternoon and evening hours. Forecasters say the primary threat will be strong to damaging wind gusts, though some storms could also produce hail. In addition, periods of heavy rainfall are likely, and if storms repeatedly track over the same areas, localized flooding cannot be ruled out.
The greatest risk for stronger storms appears to be across the Southern Tier and areas south of the Thruway, but much of the Finger Lakes remains in a zone where at least isolated severe weather is possible.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will become breezy at times, with gusts around 20 mph possible. Skies will vary between partly sunny and mostly cloudy as waves of energy move through the region.
Storms will gradually weaken later tonight, though scattered showers may linger overnight as the atmosphere remains moist and unsettled.
Looking ahead, the active pattern will continue through Thursday with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible — and another chance for severe weather depending on how instability develops. Temperatures will remain well above average into the start of the weekend before a sharp pattern change arrives.
Forecasters say a strong cold front will push through late in the weekend, bringing a dramatic cooldown. High temperatures could drop into the 40s by early next week, with overnight lows falling into the 20s and even the potential for lake-effect rain or snow showers.
For now, today’s focus remains on the developing storm threat late in the day — a reminder that while it may feel like summer, the weather pattern is far from settled.
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