Retail theft is surging in several U.S. states, and new FBI data reveals where shoplifting is hitting retailers the hardest. A new analysis highlights the worst-hit states, with one region clearly leading the national trend.
New Mexico tops the list for retail theft
New Mexico ranks first in the U.S. for shoplifting, reporting 1,277 incidents per 10,000 businesses. That’s nearly double the national average.
Much of the state’s theft activity is centered in Albuquerque, where law enforcement regularly flags spikes in organized shoplifting. Local officials point to economic pressures and poverty rates as key contributors—factors that often push retail crime from necessity-driven to organized.
Southern states dominate top ranks
Tennessee comes in second with 31,350 thefts, translating to 1,079 incidents per 10,000 businesses. Viral videos of mass thefts in cities like Memphis and Nashville have driven public concern—and forced retailers to lock away basic items like toiletries and detergent.
Maryland ranks third with 945 shoplifting cases per 10,000 businesses. In Baltimore and surrounding areas, both petty theft and organized rings have become more aggressive, prompting new task forces and legislative crackdowns.
Here’s how the rest of the top 10 stack up
States across the West, South, and even smaller northeastern markets are all feeling the squeeze.
- Oregon: 941 cases per 10K businesses, with Portland stores like Nike and REI citing theft as a reason for closures
- Oklahoma: 898 per 10K businesses
- Virginia: 865 per 10K, despite 39,000+ total incidents
- Vermont: 794 per 10K—proof that small states aren’t immune
- South Carolina: 746 per 10K, with growing concerns in Columbia and Charleston
- West Virginia: 726 per 10K
- Nebraska: 715 per 10K
California ranks low—despite national perception
While headlines often single out California, the data tells a different story. The state ranks 37th, with 447 incidents per 10,000 businesses. With more than 91,000 total cases, its massive business base likely spreads out the rate. That suggests California’s anti-theft policies and in-store prevention may be more effective than critics suggest.
Where retail theft is least common
At the bottom of the list:
- Alaska (177 per 10K)
- Florida (250 per 10K)
- Maine (268 per 10K)
- Idaho (285 per 10K)
- Wyoming (298 per 10K)
These states report the lowest rates of shoplifting per 10,000 businesses. While total case numbers are lower, many of these regions also have smaller urban centers and fewer major retail chains—factors that reduce both opportunity and reporting volume.
What’s driving the national trend?
The National Retail Federation estimates U.S. retailers lost nearly $85 billion in 2023 due to shrink—most of it tied to theft.
Big chains like Target and Walgreens say shoplifting isn’t just small-scale anymore. It’s coordinated, organized, and in some cases, a major factor in store closures. Retail theft is no longer a teen crime—it’s a systemic issue threatening jobs, business stability, and consumer trust.
Key takeaways for retailers and policymakers
- Organized crime is the leading concern—not random theft
- Smaller states like Vermont and Nebraska are seeing big spikes, signaling a nationwide problem
- Legislation and local enforcement vary widely, affecting prevention success
As theft rings grow more coordinated, experts say retailers must invest in prevention tech, community partnerships, and smart policy advocacy—not just lock more products behind glass.
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