Governor Kathy Hochul is enjoying her strongest poll numbers in over a year, while her likely 2026 opponent, Rep. Elise Stefanik, is losing ground, according to the latest Siena College survey of New York State voters.
The poll, conducted September 8–10, shows Hochul leading Stefanik by 25 points (52% to 27%) in a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup — a significant jump from her 14-point lead in August. For the first time in the poll’s tracking, Hochul has crossed the 50% support threshold.
Favorability on the upswing for Hochul
Hochul’s favorability rating now stands at 45-42%, her first net positive score since April 2024 and her best since January 2024. Her job approval rating has also ticked up slightly to 54-40%, with 72% of Democrats approving of her performance. Republican support remains low, with 73% disapproving.
“While 45-42% may not sound impressive in a blue state, for Hochul, it’s a meaningful turnaround,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
Perceptions of leadership improving
The governor also saw boosts across several leadership traits. Between 48–54% of voters say Hochul:
- Works hard
- Demonstrates honesty and integrity
- Gets things done
- Provides decisive leadership
- Cares about people like them
These are notable improvements since June 2024, when no more than 42% credited her with any of those qualities. Among Democrats, 61–70% now say she embodies all five traits — a jump from 51–60% earlier this year.
Stefanik’s numbers slide
While Hochul is gaining, Rep. Elise Stefanik is slipping. Her favorability has dropped to 21-34%, down from 27-32% in August. Support among Republicans fell to 68% (from 75%), and independents are shifting away from her — now backing Hochul 43-25%, a reversal from last month.
Women voters are driving much of Hochul’s surge: she leads Stefanik 58-22% among women and 46-35% among white voters. She holds commanding leads among Black (73-6%) and Latino (65-19%) voters.
Geographically, Hochul is ahead:
- By 41 points in NYC
- 23 points in the downstate suburbs
- 9 points upstate
Crime perceptions easing slightly
The poll also tracked voter sentiment on crime. Only 35% of voters now say crime in New York State has worsened in the past year — down from 54% last December. In their own communities, just 27% believe crime is worse (down from 35%).
While a majority (54%) of voters are still concerned about being a victim of crime, that figure is also down from 58% in December 2024.
“A glass-half-full person might say voters are beginning to feel safer,” said Greenberg, “but a glass-half-empty person could just as easily point to how many still say crime is a concern.”
New Yorkers reject Trump’s military threat
Voters across the state overwhelmingly oppose the idea of President Donald Trump deploying National Guard troops to New York City: 57% say he should not, compared to 37% who say he should. Even upstate voters — who tend to lean more conservative — oppose it 53-41%.
Opposition is strongest among:
- Women (by a 2-to-1 margin)
- Black and Latino voters (two-thirds opposed)
- New York City residents (61-32% against)
Voters skeptical of Trump’s Medicaid cuts
When asked about Trump’s proposed Medicaid changes under his so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” 63% said they believe the cuts would affect necessary healthcare programs — not just “waste, fraud, and abuse” as Trump claims. Only 27% sided with the President’s framing.
Even independents overwhelmingly rejected his position, 65-27%.
Trump’s approval sinks to new low
Donald Trump is also facing his lowest ratings in New York since becoming the 47th President:
- Favorability: 34-61%
- Job approval: 37-62% — with 52% strongly disapproving
Across six major issues — including Ukraine, Gaza, public health, the NYC mayoral race, and the Epstein files — Trump’s approval never surpassed 32%. Only Republicans showed solid support, while independents and Democrats widely disapproved.
Just 28% of New Yorkers now believe Trump’s actions “will make America great,” down from 33% in August.
Congress leaders not popular either
Other political figures fared poorly:
- Chuck Schumer: 42-45% favorability (up slightly)
- Hakeem Jeffries: 34-31%
- Mike Johnson (House Speaker): 23-34%
- John Thune (Senate Majority Leader): 12-25% (first Siena poll appearance)
- RFK Jr. (HHS Secretary): 35-56% — his worst Siena showing to date
Optimism creeps in for New York’s future
For the first time since October 2021, more voters believe the state is on the right track (42%) than headed in the wrong direction (41%) — a slim margin, but symbolically significant.
With 14 months to go until the general election, Governor Hochul appears to have momentum on her side — but as Greenberg notes, “a year is a long time in politics.”
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