Governor Kathy Hochul is pulling ahead in a potential matchup with Rep. Elise Stefanik, but many New York voters say they’re not sold on either candidate.
A new Siena College poll shows Hochul leading Stefanik 52% to 27% — a 25-point gap that marks her strongest showing yet. It’s also the first time the Democratic governor has crossed the 50% threshold in any head-to-head polling against the Republican congresswoman.
Approval up, but re-election doubts remain
Hochul’s job approval now sits at 54%, and her favorability rating has climbed to 45%, her best since January 2024. More voters describe her as honest, hardworking, and effective than they did earlier this year.
Still, only 37% say they want to re-elect her. A majority — 51% — would prefer “someone else.”
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg put it this way: “While a 45-42% favorability rating… may not sound like a major accomplishment… it is the first time her favorability rating has been positive since April.”
Stefanik struggles with visibility and support
While Hochul is improving, Stefanik’s numbers are slipping. Her favorability dropped to 21%, and nearly half of voters (45%) still say they don’t know enough about her or have no opinion.
Among independents, Stefanik had a slight lead last month. That edge is gone. Hochul now leads them 43% to 25%.
She’s also winning across major voting blocs, including a 36-point margin with women and solid leads among white, Black, and Latino voters. Hochul’s advantage spans every region of the state — from a 41-point lead in New York City to nine points upstate.
Crime concerns fade slightly
One factor helping Hochul: fewer voters think crime is getting worse. Just 35% say statewide crime has increased in the past year, down from 54% last December. Concerns remain, but fewer voters report feeling very worried about becoming victims.
What this means for 2026
The poll was conducted months before any official announcements or primaries. But it signals a steep hill for Stefanik if she moves forward.
Hochul still has work to do — especially with the 51% of voters who say they’d rather see someone new. But for now, she’s comfortably ahead in the only matchup that’s been tested.
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