While much of the national housing market is cooling in 2025, many Upstate New York counties are showing resilience—and in some cases, strong growth. New data from Zillow’s Home Value Index (ZHVI) reveals a clear divide between rising markets in Central and Western New York and declining values in parts of the New York City metro.
Through April 2025, the story of New York’s housing market is increasingly about affordability, migration, and regional economic stability—especially outside of downstate areas.
Upstate counties see steady home value growth
Several upstate counties are seeing continued home price appreciation thanks to low inventory, local demand, and affordability compared to major metros.
| County | Region | Home Value Change (Jan–Apr 2025) | Notable Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saratoga | Capital Region | +2.2% | Tech and healthcare job growth, stable inventory |
| Ontario | Finger Lakes | +1.9% | Rochester metro proximity, suburban appeal |
| Tompkins | Central NY | +1.7% | Strong university market (Ithaca), stable buyer activity |
| Jefferson | North Country | +1.6% | Fort Drum influence, local economic investment |
| Ulster | Hudson Valley | +1.5% | Continued demand for second homes and ex-urban living |
| Cortland | Central NY | +1.3% | Entry-level price point attracting first-time buyers |
| Broome | Southern Tier | +1.2% | Emerging affordability-driven interest |
| Erie | Western NY | +1.1% | Buffalo-area housing still in demand |
| Chemung | Southern Tier | +1.0% | Low inventory and small metro growth |
Why upstate markets are outperforming
Upstate New York offers a mix of affordable housing, local economic stability, and relatively low competition, which appeals to both in-state movers and out-of-state buyers priced out of major cities.
Many counties are seeing returning demand from remote workers, downsizers, and first-time buyers who are priced out of downstate or suburban NYC markets.
Downstate and metro counties see price corrections
In contrast, several downstate counties are experiencing declines or stagnation, driven by high mortgage rates and softening demand.
| County | Region | Price Change (Jan–Apr 2025) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kings (Brooklyn) | NYC | -1.7% | Demand slowdown, rising inventory |
| Queens | NYC | -1.5% | Reduced investor activity |
| Bronx | NYC | -1.4% | Affordability ceiling reached |
| Nassau | Long Island | -1.1% | Higher-end price resistance |
| Westchester | Metro-North | -1.2% | Inventory increase, buyer caution |
Regional breakdown: Upstate vs. Downstate
| Region | General Trend | Factors Driving Market Activity |
|---|---|---|
| Western NY | Rising | Urban revitalization (Buffalo), affordability |
| Central NY | Rising | Stable employment, college towns, affordability |
| Southern Tier | Rising | Attracting remote workers, first-time buyers |
| Capital Region | Modestly Rising | Growth around Albany metro |
| Hudson Valley | Mixed | Some commuter counties softening |
| NYC Metro | Declining | High prices, low affordability, rising supply |
What’s driving New York’s housing divergence?
Several factors are shaping the two-speed housing market in New York:
- Affordability: Median home prices in upstate counties are 40–60% lower than NYC metro areas.
- Migration: Pandemic-era relocations have had lasting effects on small city and rural demand.
- Mortgage rates: Elevated interest rates above 7% are pushing more buyers into affordable regions.
- Local economies: Areas with strong healthcare, education, and military sectors are more resilient.
What this means for buyers and sellers
- Buyers in upstate New York can expect continued competition in well-located areas with tight supply.
- Sellers in growing counties may still command strong prices, especially in move-in ready homes.
- Downstate buyers may find more room to negotiate as the market shifts to favor them in 2025.
Key takeaways
- Upstate counties like Saratoga, Ontario, and Tompkins are leading New York in home price gains.
- Downstate and NYC metro counties are cooling, with mild-to-moderate price declines in early 2025.
- New York’s housing market is increasingly region-driven, with localized dynamics outweighing state-wide averages.
- Buyers looking for affordability and long-term value are increasingly turning to Western, Central, and Southern Tier counties.
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