As former President Donald Trump prepares to take office again, Americans anticipate shifts in political influence, with business corporations, the wealthy, and White people expected to benefit the most, according to a new Pew Research Center study. The survey, conducted from Jan. 27 to Feb. 2, reveals widespread expectations that some groups will gain power while others—especially transgender individuals and people of color—are likely to lose it.
Seventy percent of U.S. adults believe business corporations will gain influence under Trump’s administration, while 65% say the same about wealthy individuals. Sixty percent expect White people to gain more political power, followed by the military (57%), men (55%), and evangelical Christians (48%).
At the same time, 84% of respondents believe transgender people will lose influence, making them the group seen as most negatively affected by Trump’s return. Other groups expected to lose power include gay and lesbian people (76%), Hispanic people (62%), poor people (56%), and Black people (53%).
Partisan divide on influence under Trump
Views on which groups will gain or lose influence vary sharply along partisan lines. Republicans generally foresee most groups maintaining or gaining influence, particularly the military (74%) and business corporations (59%). Most Republicans also believe transgender (77%) and gay and lesbian people (62%) will lose power in Washington.
Democrats overwhelmingly predict that wealthy people (87%), business corporations (82%), and White people (78%) will benefit under Trump. Smaller majorities say men (69%) and evangelical Christians (57%) will also gain influence. While 42% of Democrats think the military will gain power, 34% expect its influence to decline.
Do Americans believe they will personally gain or lose influence?
When asked about the influence of “people like yourself,” 41% of Americans say they will lose influence, while 37% believe their standing will remain unchanged. Just 21% expect to gain influence over the next four years.
Partisanship plays a key role in these perceptions. Nearly 70% of Democrats believe they will lose influence under Trump, while only 7% expect to gain it. In contrast, 35% of Republicans anticipate gaining influence, though a majority (51%) think their status will remain the same.
Perceptions by gender, race, and education
Women (47%) are more likely than men (34%) to believe they will lose influence under Trump. Among racial groups, Black (66%), Hispanic (52%), and Asian (47%) adults are far more likely than White Americans (33%) to anticipate losing political power.
Educational background also influences expectations. Americans without a college degree are more likely than those with a four-year degree to think they will gain influence (23% vs. 17%). However, both groups are equally likely (41%) to expect a loss of influence.
As Trump’s second term begins, these expectations highlight the deep political divisions shaping Americans’ outlook on power and representation in Washington.
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