Near-record warmth spreads across the Finger Lakes and Central New York today, with dry weather and some sunshine before showers arrive tonight. Temperatures climb into the 70s, then gradually fall as a series of weather systems brings rain chances through the weekend.
Today will be the warmest day of the stretch, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. The offices' Buffalo forecast and Binghamton forecast put the first widespread showers tonight into Thursday morning, followed by a break before another increase in rain chances Saturday.
Wednesday warmth could challenge records
Highs today reach the middle to upper 70s in lower elevations of western and north-central New York. Across Central New York and the Twin Tiers, temperatures are expected to reach the lower 70s, with some places possibly reaching the middle 70s. That makes Wednesday an unusually warm day for early November across the region.
The warmth comes as high pressure remains off the Atlantic Coast and a ridge of warmer air builds northward. Southerly winds bring milder air into the region, while sunshine filtered through passing middle and high clouds helps temperatures rise. Dry weather should continue through late afternoon across western and north-central New York.
Temperatures in the Buffalo office's region will be about 20 degrees above normal. Rochester's normal high for Nov. 4 is 54 degrees, compared with a record of 78 set in 2015. Buffalo's record is 74, set in 2022, while Watertown's is 73, set in 2015. Normal highs in Buffalo and Watertown are 52 and 51, respectively.
Those records could be challenged as temperatures rise this afternoon.
A southerly breeze strengthens during the day, with winds of 10 to 20 mph and some higher gusts across the Buffalo office's region. The strongest early downslope gusts are expected along the Chautauqua Ridge, where winds may reach 30 mph at times this morning.
Early valley fog is also possible around Elmira. Increasing winds after sunrise should help the fog clear, with improved flying conditions expected after about 8 a.m.
Light rain arrives tonight into Thursday
Clouds thicken and lower as a cold front approaches this evening. A band of showers moves across western and north-central New York tonight into Thursday morning, ending the dry daytime stretch. Farther east across Central New York and the Twin Tiers, most of Thursday's widespread showers are expected during the early to middle part of the morning.
Moisture moving north from the Gulf and the southern Atlantic supports the rain, but the main band should move through relatively quickly. The Buffalo office expects most places to receive a quarter-inch or less tonight. The Binghamton office forecasts about a tenth to a quarter-inch with the Thursday morning showers.
That rain brings some relief after a prolonged dry spell. Across the Buffalo office's region, rainfall has been minimal over the past three weeks, leaving small vegetation and fallen leaves very dry. Today's warmth and breeze arrive before the rain, with afternoon relative humidity potentially falling to 40% to 45%.
Thursday remains relatively mild across Central New York and the Twin Tiers, although the front and showers lower temperatures a few degrees from Wednesday. Cooler air follows the front, beginning a more sustained decline in temperatures through the rest of the week.
Behind the main rain band, drier air moves in and provides a break in the showers. That interruption will separate Thursday's more widespread rainfall from later rounds associated with the larger, slow-moving storm system over the Great Lakes.
Southwest winds strengthen behind the front Thursday, especially northeast of Lake Erie. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are forecast across much of the Niagara Frontier.
Friday brings a break for much of Central New York
The low-pressure system moves slowly from the Great Lakes toward New England, keeping the broader weather pattern unsettled. Its track and the moisture circulating around it will determine where showers linger between the more organized rounds of rain.
Most of Central New York and the Twin Tiers should stay dry Friday, according to the Binghamton office. A separate wave along the Mid-Atlantic Coast could keep showers going farther southeast, particularly across the Poconos and southern Catskills.
The Buffalo office maintains a chance of showers Friday as the upper-level trough moves overhead. That leaves some geographic differences in the forecast: a largely dry Friday is more likely in much of the Binghamton office's region, while western and north-central New York retain a shower chance.
Weekend showers accompany cooler temperatures
Rain chances increase again from west to east Saturday morning as the upper-level low moves into the region. Showers may linger into Sunday morning across Central New York and the Twin Tiers, while western and north-central New York can see showers at times through the weekend.
Temperatures fall each day from Friday through Sunday. By Sunday and Monday, afternoon highs across the Binghamton office's region are expected to be in the 50s, closer to normal but still slightly above average for early November. The Buffalo office also expects weekend highs to return to near average after this week's exceptional warmth.
Another trough moving southeast from Canada brings an additional chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday. Moisture from the lakes could enhance some of that rain as the next system crosses the region.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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