November begins with sunshine and afternoon temperatures near 65 across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton.
The warming trend will continue through midweek, with highs reaching the lower 70s before a better chance of rain develops Thursday into Friday.
Sunshine and light winds today
High pressure over the region early Sunday will gradually move east, allowing a southerly flow to develop. That change will bring warmer air into the region while the high continues to support dry weather.
Afternoon highs across the broader region will range from the upper 50s to the mid-60s. The forecasts for Geneva and Syracuse both call for sunshine and a high near 65, with south winds of about 3 to 6 mph.
The day will begin considerably cooler. Early-morning temperatures are forecast to fall to around 34 in Geneva and 37 in Syracuse before the afternoon warmup. Partly cloudy skies overnight will give way to the sunny daytime forecast.
Patchy fog could develop in some Southern Tier river valleys early this morning. The Weather Service identified the Elmira area as one place where fog could briefly reduce visibility, potentially lingering a little past daybreak. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail across the region today.
The dry stretch will also keep fine fuels and fallen leaves very dry, the Buffalo office said. Its early Sunday outlook calls for continued dry weather through Monday, a chance of showers Tuesday and another mainly dry day Wednesday.
A milder night leads into Monday
Sunday night will be partly cloudy, with lows around 44 in both Geneva and Syracuse. South winds will continue at roughly 6 to 7 mph, and the overnight forecast remains dry.
Monday will bring another step upward in temperature. Both cities are forecast to reach about 69 under mostly sunny skies, with light south winds of around 3 to 5 mph.
High pressure will continue moving toward the Mid-Atlantic before heading offshore Tuesday. Meanwhile, a ridge of higher pressure aloft will build over the region, helping maintain the warm pattern through the middle of the week.
The Binghamton office said temperatures during the coming stretch will be more typical of mid- to late September than the beginning of November. Afternoon readings from Monday through Thursday are expected to run well above average, generally in the 60s, with some valleys reaching the lower 70s.
Clouds will increase Monday night. The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies, with lows near 49 in Geneva and 48 in Syracuse. Those readings will begin a progression toward even milder overnight temperatures by midweek.
Clouds and a small shower chance Tuesday
A low-pressure system moving out of the Colorado Rockies will send a warm front east toward the region Tuesday. That front may bring a few showers, although much of the day is expected to remain dry.
The Buffalo office includes a chance of showers with the front. Farther east, the Binghamton office said a couple of sprinkles could occur around the Finger Lakes and Lake Plain during the midday and afternoon hours.
The current forecasts for Geneva and Syracuse call for mostly cloudy skies and highs near 69 Tuesday. Rain probabilities at those two locations are only around 10%, so the forecast does not call for a widespread rainy day.
South winds will increase slightly, to about 6 to 7 mph during the day. Southerly flow behind the warm front will continue feeding warmer air into the region rather than bringing an immediate cooldown.
Tuesday night will remain mild, with lows around 52. Geneva is forecast to have partly cloudy skies, while Syracuse will be mostly cloudy. Rain chances remain low through the night.
Temperatures reach the lower 70s Wednesday
Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day in the current five-day outlook for much of the region. Geneva and Syracuse are both forecast to reach about 73 under partly sunny skies.
Across the wider area covered by the Buffalo office, highs could range from the upper 60s to the mid-70s. The office expects Wednesday to remain dry, despite the approaching storm system farther west.
South winds will run near 9 to 10 mph at Geneva and Syracuse. Overnight readings will also stay elevated, with lows Wednesday night around 56 to 57 rather than falling back into the 30s and 40s seen earlier in the week.
A chance of rain enters the local forecasts after 1 a.m. Thursday. The overnight rain probability is around 30%, with mostly cloudy skies as the next system approaches.
Rain becomes more likely Thursday
A large upper-level trough will move into the central United States as a surface low develops over the Upper Midwest. That low is expected to travel north and west of the region, drawing a frontal boundary eastward.
Rain is likely Thursday in the forecasts for Geneva and Syracuse, with probabilities around 60%. Highs will remain mild, near 70 in Geneva and 71 in Syracuse, despite mostly cloudy skies and the increasing chance of precipitation.
The exact arrival and progress of the rain remain uncertain. The Binghamton office said guidance has slowed the arrival of showers Thursday and the movement of the front compared with the previous day. A secondary low may also develop near the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday.
Rain remains likely Thursday night, followed by a chance of additional showers Friday. Temperatures should trend lower late in the week and into next weekend while remaining above average for early November.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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