A dry Halloween will bring increasing sunshine and lighter winds across the Finger Lakes and Central New York Saturday, followed by a chilly evening and a warmer start to November.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the 50s before falling into the 40s during the evening, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. High pressure will keep most of the next several days dry as temperatures gradually climb toward 70 in some locations by midweek.
Sunshine increases Saturday as winds ease
Clouds lingering early Saturday, particularly downwind of the Finger Lakes, are expected to break up as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Sunshine will become more widespread after the early cloud cover scatters.
The afternoon will remain seasonably cool. Geneva's forecast calls for a high near 55 degrees under mostly sunny skies, while Syracuse is expected to reach about 54 with sunshine.
The broader regional forecast places most afternoon readings in the 50s, with some cooler areas remaining in the upper 40s to around 50. The warmest part of the day will come before a marked evening cooldown.
Winds will be lighter than Friday's. Geneva is expected to have west winds of 2 to 9 mph, while Syracuse's northwest winds will range from nearly calm to about 6 mph.
No rain is forecast in either city's daytime outlook. High pressure will also allow winds and waves on the lakes to subside as the weekend begins.
Halloween evening cools into the 40s
Temperatures will begin dropping as Halloween activities get underway. The Weather Service expects readings across Central New York to range from the upper 40s to the mid-50s around 5 p.m., then fall into the 40s across the region by 7 to 8 p.m.
Dry conditions are expected to continue through the evening. Light winds will accompany the cooling temperatures, with no approaching rain system expected to interrupt the first half of the weekend.
The night will turn colder as high pressure settles overhead. Regional lows will range from the mid-20s to the mid-30s, with colder readings possible away from the milder locations.
Geneva's forecast calls for mostly clear skies and a low around 35. Syracuse will be partly cloudy with a low near 34. Winds in both places will become light from the southwest.
That produces a substantial change from Saturday afternoon to the overnight low, even though the same dry weather pattern remains in place. The coldest part of the weekend will come before the warming trend develops Sunday.
Sunday brings sunshine and a warmer afternoon
High pressure will gradually shift east and southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic, allowing temperatures to moderate. The regional outlook calls for Sunday highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Geneva and Syracuse are both forecast to be sunny, with highs near 63 and 64, respectively. Southerly winds will remain light, around 5 mph in Geneva and 3 mph in Syracuse.
Sunday should therefore be several degrees warmer than Halloween without a return to wet weather. The high-pressure system will remain close enough to maintain the extended dry period even as the direction of the flow changes.
Some morning fog may develop in the Elmira area Sunday and during the early part of next week. The Weather Service identifies that as a localized possibility rather than widespread fog across the region.
Sunday night will be milder than Saturday night. Partly cloudy skies are expected, with lows around 46 in Geneva and 44 in Syracuse and a light south wind.
Monday starts a mild stretch
The warming trend will continue Monday as a ridge builds above the region and the flow becomes more south to southwesterly. Afternoon temperatures early next week are expected to run well above normal.
Both Geneva and Syracuse are forecast to reach about 67 degrees Monday. Geneva will be mostly sunny, while Syracuse is expected to have a mix of sun and clouds.
Rain chances remain very low Monday. The shift toward warmer weather will not immediately bring the more unsettled conditions associated with the next approaching weather system.
Clouds will increase Monday night, with mostly cloudy conditions expected in both locations. Lows will be around 49 in Geneva and 48 in Syracuse, considerably milder than the weekend's coldest overnight readings.
Tuesday and Wednesday approach 70
Tuesday's forecast calls for partly sunny skies and highs near 67 in Geneva and 68 in Syracuse. A slight chance of showers remains in both local forecasts, mainly between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m.
Those small shower chances do not indicate a widespread soaking. The larger regional pattern still favors mostly dry conditions through the middle of the week, with a better opportunity for meaningful rainfall later.
Tuesday night will remain mild, with lows near 54 in both cities. Syracuse retains a slight shower chance during the evening and early overnight, while Geneva is forecast to be mostly cloudy.
Wednesday could be the warmest day of the five-day outlook. Both cities are forecast to reach around 70 under partly sunny skies, and some other valley locations could approach that mark as well.
South winds will become more noticeable by Wednesday, reaching around 15 mph in Geneva and 9 to 13 mph in Syracuse.
Rain chances increase later in the week
A frontal boundary could bring more substantial rain later Wednesday night into Thursday. The timing, strength and track of the approaching system remain uncertain, so the forecast does not yet establish a precise arrival time or rainfall amount.
Until that system arrives, the extended dry stretch and warming temperatures will continue drying fine fuels and fallen leaves. The Weather Service notes that very dry leaf litter will remain part of the regional conditions through the first half of next week.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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