Temperatures will climb to around 70 across the Finger Lakes and Central New York today as an unusually mild November stretch continues, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton.
A few showers are possible Tuesday, but the more widespread rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday after temperatures peak in the mid-70s.
A warm, mostly dry Monday
High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue influencing the eastern Great Lakes today, keeping most of the region dry. Sunshine will mix with midlevel and high clouds as warmer air moves into the area.
Afternoon highs across the broader region will range from the 60s into the lower 70s in the warmest locations. The forecast for Geneva calls for partly sunny skies and a high near 71, while Syracuse is expected to reach about 70.
That will follow an early-morning low near 45 in both locations. The temperature rise comes with light winds: south winds of 2 to 7 mph are forecast for Geneva, with southwest winds near 3 mph at Syracuse.
A weak disturbance moving through the atmosphere has been producing light showers and sprinkles across Ohio. The Buffalo office expects little effect here beyond some additional cloud cover, with the coastal high continuing to support a mainly dry day.
Fine fuels and fallen leaves will remain very dry, the Weather Service said. Although a few showers are possible before midweek, dry weather is expected to resume Wednesday ahead of the larger rain system.
Clouds increase tonight
Monday night will be mostly cloudy and mild, with lows around 51 in Geneva and Syracuse. South winds will continue, generally in the 2 to 7 mph range.
A low-pressure system over the Midwest will begin nudging a warm front toward the region. Increasing moisture along that front could produce scattered showers across western New York tonight into Tuesday morning.
The highest chances for that earlier round are expected west and north-northwest of much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The current forecasts for Geneva and Syracuse keep Monday night largely dry, with the better local chance arriving after daybreak Tuesday.
The coastal high will gradually move offshore through Tuesday. Behind the advancing warm front, a stronger southerly flow will continue drawing warmer air north rather than bringing an immediate cooldown.
A few showers possible Tuesday
Tuesday will remain warm, with highs near 70 in both Geneva and Syracuse. Partly sunny intervals are expected, but a passing shower could interrupt the otherwise largely dry start to the week.
In Geneva, the current forecast gives a 30% chance of showers between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. Syracuse also has about a 30% chance, with light rain possible early in the morning and a smaller shower chance continuing into the afternoon.
Any rain at Syracuse is currently expected to total less than a tenth of an inch. The Binghamton office said the placement of the warm front will determine where passing showers develop, with the Finger Lakes and northern portions of Central New York among the areas that could see them.
Farther north, scattered showers could extend into north-central New York late Tuesday morning and afternoon. The Buffalo office said the strongest support for precipitation should remain west and north-northwest of the region.
South winds will run around 6 to 7 mph Tuesday. Skies will become partly cloudy Tuesday night, with lows near 54 and little precipitation expected at Geneva or Syracuse.
Wednesday brings the warmest weather
Wednesday is expected to bring the peak of the warmth. Mostly sunny skies and continued southerly flow will push Geneva to about 74 and Syracuse to about 75.
The Binghamton office expects highs ranging from the upper 60s to the mid-70s across its forecast region. The Buffalo office said some of the warmest locations could approach 80 as a much milder air mass spreads north.
Those temperatures will be well above average for early November. The Weather Service compared the pattern to conditions more typical of mid- to late September, with mild nights accompanying the warm afternoons.
South winds will be around 10 mph in Geneva and 6 to 9 mph in Syracuse Wednesday. A more noticeable breeze is expected Wednesday night into Thursday as the approaching storm system increases the pressure difference across the region.
Clouds will increase Wednesday night, with lows around 58 to 59. The local forecasts introduce rain chances after 1 a.m. Thursday, reaching about 60% in Geneva and 50% in Syracuse.
More widespread rain Thursday
An approaching cold front will draw moisture northward and bring a more widespread round of rain Thursday. The current forecasts put rain probabilities near 80% in both Geneva and Syracuse.
Temperatures will stay mild ahead of the front, with highs around 71 in Geneva and 72 in Syracuse. South winds will increase to roughly 6 to 13 mph, and skies will be mostly cloudy.
Syracuse's forecast also includes a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday.
The Buffalo office expressed medium to high confidence that showers will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, but confidence in rainfall amounts remains low. The rain should provide some relief from the recent dry spell, with the amount and timing still dependent on how the front progresses.
Cooler air will begin spreading east Thursday, although the Finger Lakes and areas farther north and east could remain warm for much of the day. Rain chances continue Thursday night, with lows falling to around 51.
Cooler weather follows late in the week
Showers could linger Friday as the front and an upper-level trough move through. Another low may form over the Atlantic, helping keep rain chances in the forecast through the end of the workweek.
There may also be a lull in the wet weather Friday. The Binghamton office said a drier pocket of air could move into the region, especially during the midday and afternoon hours.
Friday's forecast highs are near 64 in Geneva and 66 in Syracuse. Additional light showers remain possible Saturday as winds turn more northwesterly, with highs near 58 to 60. Temperatures should generally remain above average despite the cooldown; the current forecasts bring both cities to about 55 by Sunday.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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