Clouds and a few lingering sprinkles will give way to a cooler, less humid Friday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with sunshine becoming more common during the afternoon.
The dry break will continue through Saturday before a moisture-rich system spreads rain across the region late Saturday night and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. The weekend rain could become locally heavy, although expected totals vary considerably from the Finger Lakes toward the Southern Tier and areas farther southeast.
Clouds clear for a cooler Friday
Some low clouds, patchy fog and an isolated early shower may linger during the first part of Friday, especially over higher terrain and in parts of Central New York. Drier air arriving from the north and northwest should steadily erode that cloud cover through the morning.
Most communities are expected to turn mostly sunny for the afternoon. Temperatures will run a few degrees lower than Thursday, with highs generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s across Central New York and much of the Finger Lakes. Rochester is forecast to reach about 68 degrees, with highs near 70 in Geneva, 72 in Syracuse and 73 in Ithaca.
Falling dew points will make the change more noticeable after Thursday's damp, humid weather. North to northwest winds will generally remain light, although occasional gusts may accompany the push of cooler air during the day.
No watches, warnings or advisories were posted for New York in either the Buffalo or Binghamton forecast early Friday.
Chilly Friday night leads into a dry Saturday
High pressure will settle across the region Friday night, allowing skies to become clear or partly cloudy as winds ease. Overnight temperatures will fall mainly into the 40s, with colder pockets in northern Oneida County and the Catskills potentially reaching the upper 30s.
Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in those colder locations, but confidence was not high enough early Friday for the weather service to add frost to the official forecast. Most of the Finger Lakes and the Syracuse area are expected to stay in the mid-40s to around 50.
Saturday will bring another dry day with a good deal of sunshine. High clouds may begin to increase from the west later in the afternoon as the next system approaches, but rain should hold off through the daytime hours.
Highs Saturday will range from the mid-60s to around 70. Rochester and Geneva are forecast near 65, while Syracuse should reach the upper 60s and Ithaca could approach 70. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will develop as the center of high pressure shifts east.
Rain spreads in late Saturday night
The next low-pressure system will approach from the west Saturday night, drawing a plume of deep moisture toward New York. Showers are expected to develop first across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, then spread northeast through early Sunday.
Timing suggests much of Saturday evening could remain dry before rain becomes more likely after midnight. Current forecasts place the chance of rain after 2 a.m. at about 40% in Rochester and 50% in Geneva and Syracuse, while steadier rain is expected to reach Ithaca late in the night.
The atmosphere will contain much more moisture than it did during Friday and Saturday. Even with little instability and only a low chance of thunder, that moisture will support periods of moderate rain and some locally heavy downpours.
Sunday turns wet and noticeably cooler
Rain is expected through much of Sunday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The steadiest period should occur from Sunday morning into the afternoon before showers begin shifting east and gradually tapering Sunday evening.
Forecast rainfall amounts show a pronounced geographic difference. The Binghamton office expects less than a half-inch from the Finger Lakes northeast toward the Tug Hill region, with roughly a half-inch to 1.25 inches across the Southern Tier. Totals could reach 1.5 to 2 inches farther southeast across northeastern Pennsylvania and the southern Catskills, where the best combination of moisture and stronger winds aloft is expected.
The Buffalo office also identifies heavy rain as the primary hazard with the system because of the unusually moist air. Any heavier pockets in western portions of the region would be localized, and the limited instability should keep the thunder threat low. An isolated thunderstorm remains possible, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected.
Clouds and rain will hold temperatures down Sunday. Highs are forecast mainly in the upper 50s to mid-60s across Central New York, with readings near the mid-60s in Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse. Damp low clouds and fog may linger over higher terrain even after the steadier rain begins to move away.
Brief Monday break before more midweek showers
Cooler and drier air should press south Sunday night as another area of high pressure builds north of the Great Lakes. That may provide a brief stretch of mainly dry weather Monday, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out and the day may retain considerable cloud cover.
Monday highs are expected to remain in the lower to mid-60s. A northeasterly breeze may become more noticeable near Rochester, where winds could reach around 14 mph, while winds farther east should remain lighter.
Forecast confidence drops beginning Monday night and Tuesday. Guidance points to an upper-level low developing near the Great Lakes and drifting toward the region, but the timing and placement of individual rounds of rain remain uncertain.
The broader pattern favors clouds, scattered showers and below-average temperatures from Tuesday into Thursday, with dry periods between rounds of rain. Highs Tuesday are currently projected near 60 in Rochester and Geneva and in the lower 60s around Ithaca and Syracuse.
Possible thunderstorms return to parts of the region Tuesday or Wednesday, but confidence in their timing is limited. The most consistent part of the outlook is a cool, unsettled stretch through midweek rather than continuous rain at every location.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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