Most lake-effect warnings and advisories expired overnight as the multiday Thanksgiving snow event came to an end across western and central New York. The next system is already moving in, bringing scattered snow and rain showers today, a sharp increase in winds this afternoon, and another brief round of lake-effect tonight. After a quieter Monday, attention turns to a more organized coastal system expected to bring accumulating snow to the region late Monday night through Tuesday.
Here’s the latest update from the National Weather Service.
Sunday morning: Light snow spreads in, then transitions to rain in lower elevations
A weak system clipping the region early this morning is spreading scattered snow showers into western, central, and northern New York. Early precipitation may take time to reach the ground due to dry low-level air, but widespread light snow becomes steadier through mid-morning.
What to expect this morning
- Widespread light snow, with 1–3 inches possible through midday.
- Southern Tier and lower elevations: A transition to rain by early afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid-30s to low 40s.
- Higher terrain (Tug Hill, western Adirondacks, western Southern Tier): Mainly snow all day.
- Northern Oneida remains under a Winter Weather Advisory through early Monday; totals there will exceed 4 inches.
Southerly winds strengthen into the late morning, with gusts approaching 30 mph.
Sunday afternoon to evening: Colder air returns; winds increase sharply
A cold front sweeps across the region this afternoon as the parent low passes to the west and north.
Wind impacts
- Wind gusts 40–50 mph possible in:
- Niagara Frontier
- Southern Erie
- Wyoming
- Chautauqua
- Wind Advisories are in effect for those zones until 10 p.m.
- Elsewhere across western and central NY, gusts approach 35–40 mph.
Wind chills by evening will fall back into the 20s and low 30s.
Transition back to snow
As colder air spills in behind the front:
- Mixed precipitation transitions back to light snow from west to east.
- The front reintroduces scattered snow showers across the Finger Lakes, central NY, and Western NY this evening.
Sunday night: Brief burst of lake-effect east and southeast of both lakes
A short-lived lake-effect response develops after midnight as cold northwest flow deepens.
Lake Erie
- Band develops northeast of the lake early tonight, then drops quickly south across the Southern Tier.
- Accumulations 1–3 inches in higher terrain (Chautauqua Ridge, northern Cattaraugus).
- Lighter amounts elsewhere.
Lake Ontario
- Lake-effect snow develops northeast of the lake this evening, then shifts southeast toward Lewis, Oswego, and Oneida counties.
- Additional 1–3 inches, higher across the Tug Hill and elevated terrain.
- The lake-effect window is short; the band weakens by early Monday as drier air arrives.
Temperatures fall into the 20s, with some patchy freezing drizzle possible where moisture is shallow—mainly central NY and the eastern Finger Lakes.
Monday: Quiet, cold, and partly sunny
High pressure builds in quickly Monday, ending any lingering lake-effect before noon.
Conditions
- Partly sunny to mostly clear skies.
- Light winds.
- Highs only upper 20s to low 30s—around 10–15 degrees below average for December 1.
Monday night–Tuesday: Accumulating snow increasingly likely
Confidence continues to grow that a coastal system will bring widespread accumulating snow late Monday night through Tuesday. Guidance still differs on the track, but trends favor a path close enough to bring light to moderate snowfall across most of central New York and possibly Northeast PA.
Current expectations
- Snow spreads in after midnight Monday, becomes widespread by early Tuesday.
- Some warmer valleys may briefly mix with rain Tuesday afternoon, but most areas stay snow.
- Early snowfall projections (still subject to change):
- 5–8 inches east of I-81 and into the Catskills/Poconos higher terrain.
- 2–5 inches for much of Central NY and the Finger Lakes.
- Light lake-effect snow continues Tuesday night once the storm pulls away.
A more inland track would increase mixing and reduce totals south of the Southern Tier; a farther offshore track would increase totals across all of central NY.
No advisories have been issued yet, but that could change rapidly today and Monday as the storm path becomes clearer.
Wednesday–Thursday: Colder air and quick-hitting snow squalls
After Tuesday’s system:
- Wednesday brings scattered lake-effect and flurries, then a strong cold front late Wednesday night.
- Snow squalls are possible.
- Temperatures plunge into the single digits and teens Wednesday night into Thursday.
- Wind chills may drop near or below zero.
Another weak system may arrive late Friday into Saturday.
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