What started as a curious weather anomaly over Lake Ontario has turned into groundbreaking research — and it all began at Hobart and William Smith Colleges.
A team of HWS alumni, working alongside Associate Provost and Geoscience Professor Nick Metz, has revealed that subtle atmospheric ripples high above the ground can significantly shape the lake-effect snow that defines winters across the Great Lakes. Their findings could lead to better forecasts and safer roads.
The research, recently published in the Weather and Forecasting journal, began during a 2014 winter field campaign called OWLeS — the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems project. Metz and his students noticed a snow band behaving oddly, swinging north and south like a pendulum. Years later, they confirmed this strange movement was tied to short-wave troughs — small disturbances in the jet stream moving above the lake.
“These disturbances might seem minor,” Metz explained, “but they can totally change what happens below.”
Ian C. Beckley ’20, now a Ph.D. candidate in atmospheric science at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, led the effort to turn the observation into a full study. He teamed up with alums Elliott Morrill ’15, Shay Callahan ’17, and Gabby Linscott ’21, who each contributed research and analysis through the years. Beckley and Linscott eventually proved that these interactions weren’t rare — they were common.
“It was exciting to realize this wasn’t just a one-off event,” Beckley said. “We were seeing a real, repeatable pattern.”
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