Governor Kathy Hochul still leads the New York governor’s race by a wide margin, but new polling shows some cracks forming in her support — and signals a tougher general election fight ahead.
She’s still dominating the Democratic primary, with 56% backing her over Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado’s 16%. But her lead over Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik has slipped to 20 points, down from 25 in September.
A shifting landscape
The latest Siena College poll, released Tuesday, shows Hochul’s favorability and job approval numbers sliding slightly. Her favorability now stands at 43-45%, down from 45-42%, and her job approval has dropped to 52-43%, down two points since September.
Even with those dips, Hochul remains firmly in control of the Democratic field, leading Delgado among men, women, liberals, moderates, upstaters, and downstaters. In a general election matchup, she leads Stefanik 52-32%.
But Stefanik is gaining traction. Among Republicans, her support jumped to 79%, up from 68%. And among independents, the gap has narrowed sharply — Hochul now leads by just 4 points, compared to 18 in September.
Pollster Steven Greenberg summed it up: “Eight months out from primary day, Hochul has a commanding lead… But Stefanik is closing the gap with independents and strengthening her base.”
More voters want someone else
One of the most telling numbers: just 42% of voters say they’re ready to re-elect Hochul. Nearly half — 48% — say they want “someone else.” That’s actually an improvement from September, when just 37% backed her re-election. But among those who want a change, a clear majority — 53% — say they prefer a Republican.
That points to potential softness in Hochul’s support, even as she leads now.
Regional splits and political headwinds
Hochul holds a big 42-point lead in New York City, but her edge shrinks to just 9 points in the suburbs and a razor-thin 3 points upstate. That’s a warning sign for Democrats, especially if turnout outside the city is strong.
Meanwhile, Stefanik’s favorability rating is ticking upward, now at 28-36% — better than her 21-34% numbers in September. Delgado remains largely unknown, with a 20-20% favorability.
The poll also reflects broader political discontent. Just 39% of voters think New York is on the right track, and only 30% feel the same about the country.
Mamdani factor and party dynamics
Though not in the governor’s race, New York City’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is another rising political figure shaping opinions. He holds a 55-31% favorability rating in the city and is viewed as a progressive force who could work well with Hochul.
Statewide, voters believe Mamdani and Hochul will cooperate to improve New Yorkers’ lives — a sharp contrast to the widespread belief that Mamdani and former President Trump would not work together.
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