New York’s winter forecast is in, and it’s looking warmer than usual. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2025–2026 winter season in New York will likely bring above-average temperatures and average precipitation—but snow lovers shouldn’t rule out surprises.
What NOAA predicts for New York this winter
NOAA’s latest long-range outlook suggests:
- Warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of New York and the Northeast
- Average levels of snow and rain for most regions
- A slightly wetter winter in parts of Western New York near the Pennsylvania border
Only Washington and northern Oregon are expected to be colder than usual, making most of the U.S. milder this season.
What’s driving the forecast?
One of the biggest variables this year is the developing La Niña pattern. La Niña occurs when Pacific Ocean waters near the equator are cooler than normal, which can shift atmospheric patterns and jet streams.
In New York, La Niña winters have historically produced mixed results:
- Weaker La Niña years tend to bring more snow, especially in Central New York
- Stronger La Niñas may lead to drier, warmer winters
NOAA is still monitoring whether this winter’s La Niña will be weak, moderate, or strong.
What about snowfall?
While the NOAA outlook only predicts average precipitation, that doesn’t mean snowfall will be low. Much of New York’s snow totals depend on lake-effect events, which can happen even during warm winters.
In Syracuse, for example, more snow has historically fallen during weak La Niña seasons compared to stronger ones.
Meanwhile, the Farmers’ Almanac paints a different picture—predicting a very cold and snow-filled winter for the Northeast. As always, long-range forecasts vary, so it’s smart to be prepared either way.
When will local forecasts be released?
The NewsChannel 9 Storm Team is expected to release its detailed Central New York winter outlook on Wednesday, November 12. This hyper-local forecast will provide a more refined view of what to expect in cities like Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo.
This content is brought to you by the FingerLakes1.com Team. Support our mission by visiting www.patreon.com/fl1 or learn how you send us your local content here.