Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 14 percentage points among likely New York voters in a new Quinnipiac University poll, while Blakeman holds the advantage Upstate.
The poll released Oct. 21 puts the Democratic incumbent at 55% and Blakeman at 41%, with 4% not choosing a candidate. Hochul led 58% to 39% in Quinnipiac’s Sept. 23 survey.
Quinnipiac interviewed 1,167 likely voters Oct. 15-19. The statewide margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, including the survey’s design effect. The matchup includes people who had already voted and voters leaning toward a candidate.
Regional and party differences
Upstate likely voters favored Blakeman 52% to 46%. Hochul led 70% to 24% in New York City, while suburban voters divided 48% for Blakeman and 47% for Hochul. Quinnipiac’s published methods give the statewide margin of error; margins for these smaller subgroups are available from the pollster on request.
The candidates drew strong support within their parties: Democrats backed Hochul 94% to 5%, and Republicans backed Blakeman 95% to 4%. Independents favored Blakeman 51% to 44%.
Women supported Hochul 60% to 35%. Men were nearly evenly divided, at 49% for Hochul and 48% for Blakeman.
Cost of living tops issue list
Asked to choose the most important issue in their vote from a list of 10, 22% selected the cost of living, 19% the economy and 13% immigration. Health care and crime each drew 9%, followed by taxes at 7%, affordable housing at 6%, energy costs at 3%, and schools and AI data centers at 2% each.
Hochul led 71% to 24% among voters who chose the cost of living and 72% to 27% among those choosing the economy. Blakeman led 71% to 28% among voters who chose immigration.
Blakeman’s supporters expressed greater enthusiasm: 65% said they were very enthusiastic about supporting him, compared with 33% of Hochul supporters. Among voters who had chosen a candidate, 87% said they were not likely at all to change their minds, including 90% of Blakeman supporters and 84% of Hochul supporters.
Candidate ratings and job approval
Hochul’s favorable rating was 45%, with 46% unfavorable and 6% saying they had not heard enough about her. Blakeman’s rating was 36% favorable and 40% unfavorable, with 23% unfamiliar with him.
In September, Blakeman stood at 30% favorable and 36% unfavorable, with 34% unfamiliar. Hochul’s September ratings were 46% favorable, 43% unfavorable and 10% unfamiliar, according to the poll’s trend tables.
Hochul’s job approval stood at 49%, with 45% disapproving. President Donald Trump received 34% approval and 60% disapproval; his personal favorability was 35% favorable and 59% unfavorable. Zohran Mamdani’s statewide favorability was 43% favorable and 42% unfavorable, with 12% saying they had not heard enough about him.
The survey’s methods appendix describes random-digit-dial interviews conducted in English or Spanish by live interviewers: 378 on landlines and 789 on cellphones. Dynata supported data collection, and Quinnipiac managed and tabulated the results.
Quinnipiac weighted the overall adult sample for demographic characteristics, telephone access, recent party-identification benchmarks and the 2024 presidential election results. The university funded the poll entirely.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.
