Lower natural gas supply costs may offer only modest relief on winter utility bills, while electricity and heating oil present different pressures for households across the Finger Lakes.
National Grid's winter forecast projects about $9 in savings for a typical upstate residential gas customer using 713 therms from Nov. 1, 2026, through March 31, 2027, but a 3% to 5% increase in total electric bills, or $22 to $39 over those five months, depending on location.
Those are National Grid estimates, not statewide household averages or forecasts for every utility serving the region, and they assume normal winter weather using market information available at the end of September.
For families planning their heating budgets, the central questions are which company supplies their service, how their home is heated and how much energy it uses — not simply whether wholesale fuel prices are rising or falling.
A lower supply price is only part of the bill
An energy bill combines the fuel or electricity itself with delivery charges that support the network bringing it to a home.
National Grid says it passes wholesale supply costs to customers without a markup, while delivery pays for operations, maintenance, repairs, storm response and infrastructure; the company also stores gas and buys some supply at fixed prices ahead of time to limit exposure to sudden market changes.
That helps explain why falling supply costs need not translate into a similarly large reduction in the total amount due.
In the Capital Region, the Times Union reported a projected five-month gas bill of about $803, down roughly $9, and an electric bill of about $794, up approximately $22.
The newspaper reported that expected gas supply savings of about $100 would largely be offset by higher delivery charges, and that a customer receiving both gas and electricity would pay about $156 more in delivery charges over the winter under the existing rate increase.
Those Capital Region totals should not be substituted for a Finger Lakes household's bill, particularly when its utility, rate class or consumption differs.
Delivery rates reflect a multiyear spending plan
The increases follow the Public Service Commission's August 2025 approval of a three-year National Grid rate plan, which supports approximately $4.3 billion in electric capital investment and $1 billion in gas investment.
The commission identified infrastructure spending, operating and maintenance expenses, taxes, depreciation and financing costs among the drivers of the plan, while reducing the company's initial requested increases.
National Grid's rate-plan explanation includes replacing about 112 miles of leak-prone gas pipe over three years, improving storm resilience and upgrading electric infrastructure.
The same plan provides more than $290 million in discounts for vulnerable customers, including about $72 million in its first year, and an up-to-$3 million shareholder-funded health and safety weatherization program.
Heating oil is already much more expensive
Households buying heating oil face a separate market from customers receiving utility gas.
NYSERDA's Oct. 9 Weekly Energy and Fuel Markets Report lists a statewide posted credit price of $6.210 per gallon for ultra-low-sulfur No. 2 heating oil in its Oct. 5 survey, compared with $3.720 a year earlier — an increase of 67%.
The same survey lists propane at $3.532 per gallon, up 12.8% from a year earlier, and kerosene at $6.846, up 50.7%.
These are dated price observations, not predictions of the total cost to heat a particular home throughout the winter; the amount purchased, supplier terms, fuel choice and weather also affect what a household pays.
The report identifies geopolitical uncertainty, refinery operations, inventories and seasonal demand among market influences, and says ultra-low-sulfur diesel inventories remain below their 10-year range.
NYSERDA's heating-fuel dashboard offers regional comparisons, a more useful reference for a local delivery quote than treating the statewide survey as a guaranteed dealer price.
Weather and the heating system can change the outcome
A seasonal forecast cannot lock in actual household usage or wholesale prices.
A colder period can raise demand precisely when homes need more fuel, while insulation, equipment and thermostat settings influence how much energy a building requires.
An all-electric home can use substantially more electricity in winter than a home heated with gas, so a typical electric customer's quoted dollar increase should not be read as an individual heat-pump household's heating forecast.
The Times Union also reported that many New York power plants can switch to oil when gas supplies are tight, connecting fuel-oil availability and price to electricity-market risks as well as home heating.
For a household comparing bills, the useful starting point is its own usage history and delivery and supply line items, rather than assuming that a change in one commodity will determine the whole bill.
Assistance opens before the coldest months
The regular 2026-27 Home Energy Assistance Program application period is scheduled to open Nov. 2, a date confirmed in county social-services guidance.
National Grid's upstate HEAP page lists maximum monthly household income of $3,563 for one person, $4,659 for two and $6,852 for four for the 2026-27 season; applicants still must meet the program's eligibility requirements.
Residents can use the state's myBenefits portal or their own county social-services department for application information.
National Grid also offers a monthly Energy Affordability Program credit to enrolled customers and payment arrangements for qualifying accounts.
Its Budget Plan spreads projected annual energy costs across 12 monthly payments; spreading payments is not the same as reducing the amount of energy used or eliminating the underlying cost.
Customers concerned about a winter shortfall can ask their utility about assistance and payment options before their bills become overdue.
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