Morning showers will give way to a brief break across the Finger Lakes and Central New York Sunday before gusty winds and another round of rain tonight, according to the National Weather Service offices in [Buffalo](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off) and [Binghamton](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off).
The strongest afternoon gusts will be farther west, reaching 40 to 45 mph from the Niagara Frontier toward Rochester. Much of the region will have gusts of 20 to 30 mph, followed by a windy night as a cold front brings more widespread showers into Monday morning.
## Sunday brings clearing and stronger winds
Low clouds, scattered showers and drizzle will diminish from west to east this morning as the weather system responsible for the weekend rain moves farther into the Canadian Maritimes. Some clearing will follow, with clouds breaking across western New York before conditions improve farther east.
The improvement will arrive later in Central New York, where showers and low clouds will linger longer early in the day. Binghamton forecasters expect conditions to improve into the afternoon as the departing system moves away.
Daytime temperatures across Central New York and the Southern Tier will generally reach the 50s. Additional rain during the day should be light for most of that area, with less than a tenth of an inch expected. The break between systems will offer a drier interval before showers redevelop later Sunday.
Winds will strengthen as the next cold front approaches from the northwest. Stronger winds above the ground will mix down during the afternoon, producing the highest gusts northeast of Lake Erie and toward Rochester. Buffalo forecasters expect those peak gusts to remain just below wind advisory criteria; neither office listed a land-based advisory in its early Sunday forecast.
Conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario will be rougher. Sustained winds will approach 30 knots Sunday afternoon into tonight, with some gusts reaching gale force. Small craft advisories are in effect for the lakes, with hazardous conditions continuing into Monday and, on portions of Lake Ontario, early Tuesday.
Cool air over the lakes will also support a chance of waterspouts Sunday morning, then again tonight into Monday morning as lake-enhanced showers return.
## Rain spreads back in tonight
The next disturbance will move from the upper Great Lakes toward New England tonight into Monday, sending a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes. Lake-effect rain showers may begin developing east and northeast of the lakes late Sunday afternoon and evening, initially favoring areas near Buffalo and Watertown.
As winds turn from west-southwest toward west-northwest overnight, the showers will shift southeast of the lakes. The approaching disturbance will also provide enough moisture and lift for scattered to numerous showers beyond the lake-effect bands, making tonight’s rain more widespread than the initial late-day showers.
The steadiest rain and largest totals will be east and southeast of the lakes, particularly around Oswego County and the Tug Hill Plateau. A few locations there could receive a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch. Shifting winds will keep the bands moving southward rather than leaving one location under the heaviest rain for an extended period.
Temperatures near the ground will remain warm enough for rain. A few heavier lake-effect showers could contain small hail or graupel, the soft pellets that sometimes develop in colder clouds, but this system is not expected to bring a change to accumulating snow.
Winds will remain strong tonight into Monday morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common, with a few gusts near 40 mph possible over higher terrain in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. Cloud cover will help keep overnight temperatures in Central New York and the Southern Tier generally in the 30s to around 40.
## Monday showers taper during the afternoon
Showers will continue Monday morning, especially southeast of the lakes, where lake moisture and winds pushing air over higher terrain will help sustain the rain. The deeper moisture will begin pulling away during the afternoon as the disturbance moves east.
Rain will end gradually from west to east. Central New York and higher terrain farther north will be among the last areas to dry out, with most of those showers ending by mid- to late afternoon.
Winds will also diminish from west to east Monday. The lakes will remain rough longer, with only a brief period of lower winds Monday night before another round of stronger winds and waves develops Tuesday.
## Tuesday and Wednesday turn quieter
Most of the region will have a mainly dry, somewhat warmer stretch Tuesday and Wednesday. Smaller disturbances moving across southern Canada could still bring a few light showers to northern areas, especially near the Tug Hill region.
Some lake-effect showers could persist into Wednesday in the more favored locations while the rest of the region dries out. The midweek improvement will come ahead of another developing system expected to bring a return to colder, unsettled weather late in the week.
## Rain chances increase Thursday
A developing low-pressure system is expected to move into the Ohio Valley around Wednesday and Thursday, with the possibility of a coastal storm forming near the Mid-Atlantic by Friday. Rain chances will increase Thursday and Thursday night as that system approaches.
Colder air moving south through the Great Lakes could eventually allow rain to mix with or change to wet snow Thursday or Friday, with rain and snow showers potentially lingering into Saturday. Higher elevations would be favored for measurable snow if the storm takes a track just south of the region.
Confidence is high that the end of the week will become chilly and unsettled, but confidence in wet snow remains very low. The air mass is not particularly cold, and possible storm tracks still range from near the region to well south of it. Those differences will determine how much precipitation arrives and whether enough cooling occurs for snow.
Buffalo forecasters put the chance of more than 2 inches of snow over higher terrain Friday into Saturday at 20% to 30%. That is a probability for the hills, not a forecast of widespread accumulation. The storm’s track, timing and snowfall potential remain unresolved.
Longer-range forecasts suggest a return to dry weather and above-normal temperatures early the following week after the system moves away.
[Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.](https://www.fingerlakes1.com/weather-center/)
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