Rain showers will keep the Finger Lakes and Central New York unsettled this weekend, with stronger winds developing Sunday and another round of showers Sunday night into Monday, according to the National Weather Service offices in [Buffalo](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off) and [Binghamton](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off).
Temperatures will generally stay in the 40s and 50s through Monday. The weekend precipitation is expected to remain rain, including over higher terrain, before colder air arrives later next week and brings a less certain chance of rain mixing with snow.
## Saturday showers become more widespread tonight
An upper-level low crossing New York and Pennsylvania will keep showers around Saturday as it moves toward New England. A surface low over the eastern Great Lakes will weaken while a second low develops near the New England coast, then strengthens over the Gulf of Maine tonight.
Rain over Central New York will shift north and east toward the North Country and St. Lawrence Valley, where it will persist for much of the day. Farther south, showers will be more scattered, with Binghamton forecasters expecting some improvement around midday. Syracuse and Rome are more likely to hold onto rain and low clouds.
Western New York will have a different pattern early in the day. Southwest winds off Lake Erie will support lake-effect rain near the immediate shoreline through midmorning, occasionally reaching the Buffalo area. Brief heavy downpours are possible close to the lake, but that band should weaken and become more broken later in the morning and afternoon as winds change with height.
Lower elevations in western New York and the western Finger Lakes will have somewhat better cloud conditions through mid- to late afternoon than the western Southern Tier and areas farther east. That improvement will be temporary as the wind turns northwest by early evening.
Moisture wrapping around the departing storm, combined with the lakes and rising air over higher terrain, will produce fairly widespread light rain and showers this evening and early overnight. The clouds will also lower, particularly over the hills. Even at higher elevations, temperatures should support rain through this part of the forecast.
Cool air over the lakes will also support a chance of waterspouts today through Sunday morning. The Weather Service said those would typically occur in or near lake-effect clouds and showers.
## Sunday brings a morning lull and stronger winds
Showers will taper from west to east late tonight into Sunday morning as deeper moisture moves away. Central New York will be among the last areas to dry out, with that round of showers expected to end by midmorning Sunday. The break will come before another disturbance arrives Sunday night.
The more pronounced change Sunday will be the wind. A strengthening pressure difference across the Great Lakes will produce the strongest gusts in far western New York, especially along the Niagara Frontier and in northeastern Erie County.
Gusts there are expected to reach at least 40 mph, with a few hours of gusts approaching 50 mph possible during the afternoon. Buffalo forecasters said a wind advisory may eventually be needed for that area; their early Saturday forecast did not include a land-based advisory.
Elsewhere in the Buffalo forecast area, which includes the western Finger Lakes, gusts will generally range from 25 to 35 mph. Binghamton forecasters also expect a gusty pattern across Central New York and the Southern Tier, with gusts of at least 20 mph possible on most days through the period.
Conditions on Lakes Erie and Ontario will become rougher as winds increase from the west-northwest tonight, then strengthen from the west-southwest Sunday. Sustained winds could approach 30 knots at times Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, producing conditions near the upper end of small-craft advisory criteria on both lakes.
## Showers return Sunday night into Monday
Another upper-level low will dive southeast across Ontario and Quebec late Sunday into Monday morning, bringing a renewed chance of showers. At first, westerly winds will favor areas east of the lakes. As winds turn northwest overnight, the favored areas for showers will shift southeast of the lakes.
This round is also expected to remain rain. Moisture coming off the Great Lakes will help sustain showers into Monday morning, keeping the region in a cool, unsettled pattern even after the weekend storm has moved farther away.
Winds will decrease Sunday night. Temperatures through Monday will remain generally in the 40s and 50s across the Binghamton forecast area.
## Tuesday and Wednesday look quieter
A less active stretch is expected from late Monday into the middle of next week. Most areas should be dry Tuesday and Wednesday, although small disturbances passing to the north and moisture from the lakes could still produce scattered showers, particularly in the North Country.
Tuesday’s clearing may be slower than earlier forecasts suggested. Temperatures should turn somewhat milder, with readings a little above average Tuesday and Wednesday in the Buffalo forecast area. The break will precede a larger change in the upper-level weather pattern toward the end of the week.
## Colder late-week weather carries an uncertain storm chance
A deeper trough is expected to develop over the Great Lakes and Northeast later next week, allowing colder air to move south. Rain chances will increase Thursday and Friday as a potential storm crosses the Plains and Ohio Valley, with the possibility of a new low developing near the coast Friday.
The track and timing remain highly uncertain. A storm passing farther south could draw in enough cold air for rain to mix with snow, with higher terrain more favored for a wintry mix. Buffalo forecasters also identified rain and wet-snow chances extending into Friday and Saturday as a slow-moving upper low develops.
Some individual computer-model forecasts have shown an early accumulating snow scenario. But the Weather Service cautioned that the air mass may not be particularly cold and that models can run too cold at this range early in the season. Rain with minor snow over higher elevations remains the more likely outcome in the Buffalo forecast area. The uncertainty in storm placement and available cold air leaves snowfall amounts unresolved.
[Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.](https://www.fingerlakes1.com/weather-center/)
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