Milder air and gusty winds will bring a mostly dry Tuesday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York before rain returns Wednesday night and colder weather raises the chance of wet snow late in the week.
Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in many communities Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Any snow accumulation later in the week is expected to be minor and largely limited to higher elevations.
Tuesday brings mild air and gusty winds
Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week in western and central New York. Lower elevations will have the best chance of reaching the lower 60s, while higher terrain and the North Country generally stay in the lower to middle 50s.
Clouds will decrease across much of Central New York as high pressure builds. Areas along and north of the Thruway may hold onto more lake clouds, while western New York starts with improving conditions after low clouds moved out overnight.
Westerly winds will strengthen during the morning, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected from midmorning through midafternoon across western and central New York. The breeze accompanies a fast-moving low-pressure system crossing southern Quebec on its way toward New England.
Small craft advisories remain in effect Tuesday on the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario, the westernmost nearshore zone’s advisory runs until 1 a.m. Wednesday, followed by 4 a.m. for the next zone east and 6 a.m. for the eastern nearshore waters. Lake Erie advisories expire Tuesday evening.
Most showers associated with that system will stay well north of the Finger Lakes. Lake moisture and air rising over the terrain will favor light rain around the Tug Hill, western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley. A little lake-related rain could reach northern Central New York later Tuesday evening.
Leftover showers in the North Country will end overnight as high pressure strengthens. Winds will diminish quickly Tuesday evening in western New York, though occasional gusts around 15 to 20 knots, or roughly 17 to 23 mph, may linger farther east into the night.
Wednesday stays mostly dry before evening rain
Most of Wednesday will remain dry, giving the region another break before the next system arrives. Clouds will increase as a low-pressure system approaches from the west, with light rain potentially developing in western New York toward evening.
The chance of showers will spread into Central New York Wednesday evening. Rain could become more widespread overnight as low pressure reaches the Ohio Valley and the atmosphere becomes wetter ahead of the system.
The change will begin a stretch of cooler, unsettled weather lasting through the end of the week. Wednesday night’s precipitation is expected to be rain, with the more meaningful chance of a rain-and-snow mix arriving later as colder air deepens.
Thursday rain comes with uncertainty offshore
Periods of light rain are expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures should support rain through Thursday evening across most areas, with the possible exception of the highest terrain in the North Country.
The Buffalo forecast favors a second low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday, followed by an elongated area of low pressure or several separate centers offshore of New England into Saturday. That system would eventually move toward the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night.
Binghamton forecasters remain less certain about whether a distinct coastal low will develop, where it would form and how strong it would become. Those differences affect the timing and coverage of precipitation. Cooler weather beneath a broad area of low pressure over the Northeast is more certain than the precise storm track.
Northerly to northeasterly winds will bring moist air into the region Thursday night and beyond. Occasional showers will favor higher ground where that air is pushed uphill, rather than producing a uniform period of steady precipitation everywhere.
Wet snow chances increase on higher terrain Friday
Rain could mix with or change to wet snow over higher elevations Thursday night into Friday. The coldest air above the ground is expected Friday night into Saturday, bringing the best chance for some lower elevations to see a mix or a change to snow as well.
Accumulation will be harder to achieve than a change in precipitation type. Ground temperatures remain relatively warm, and the air near the surface may be only marginally cold enough. The best opportunity for minor accumulation is on higher terrain, particularly overnight Friday into Saturday.
The Buffalo office expects precipitation amounts to remain light because the system has limited lift and the wind direction gives air only a short trip over the lakes to gather moisture. Its forecast favors very minor higher-elevation snowfall Friday into Saturday, with little chance of more than minor winter impacts.
No snow accumulation is expected in the lower elevations and main population centers in that forecast. A few wet flakes or a brief mix would not necessarily mean snow will stick. Neither weather service office listed a land-based watch, warning or advisory in its early Tuesday forecast.
Showers may linger into the weekend
Another period of northerly or northeasterly winds Thursday through Saturday could bring renewed small craft advisory conditions. Beyond Saturday, western New York may turn drier as the system departs Sunday into Monday, while Central New York could retain lake rain or snow showers if low pressure lingers nearby. Cool air is expected to persist into early next week before a possible warming trend toward midweek.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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