Widespread rain will move across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Sunday, ending the weekend with a cloudy, cool day before a brief break Monday and another more active system Tuesday.
Rain will spread north through the region during the morning and continue into Sunday night, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Highs will generally reach the low 60s, with southeast winds adding a chilly feel as the rain becomes steadier.
Rain fills in through Sunday
The first rain will reach the Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes early Sunday, then expand toward the Thruway and Syracuse later in the morning. Most places will have a wet afternoon, though the timing will be a little later closer to Lake Ontario than it will be around Ithaca and the Southern Tier.
The rain is tied to moisture from the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Isaias moving north from the Mid-Atlantic. It may fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times across the Southern Tier, while amounts farther north and west are expected to be lower.
Rainfall totals through Sunday night will vary considerably across the region. The Southern Tier could receive 1 to 2 inches in spots, while most of Central New York and the Finger Lakes are expected to stay below an inch. Current forecasts call for roughly one-half inch to around an inch near Geneva and Syracuse, with lower totals toward Rochester and higher amounts possible near Ithaca and points south.
Minor ponding could develop in poor-drainage or urban locations where the heaviest rain persists. The broader flash-flood threat remains very low because the region has been dry leading into the storm, and neither weather service office had a land-based watch or warning in effect early Sunday.
Southeast winds will remain noticeable but generally manageable across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Gusts around 20 mph are possible in parts of the southern Finger Lakes, while the stronger downsloping gusts near 35 mph are expected farther west along the Chautauqua Ridge.
High temperatures will cluster near 60 to 63 degrees from Ithaca and Geneva to Rochester and Syracuse. The combination of clouds, rain and a southeast breeze will keep temperatures from changing much during the day.
Rain tapers overnight
The steady rain will gradually pull away from south to north late Sunday night into early Monday. Some locations may continue to see light rain or drizzle into the predawn hours, especially from the Finger Lakes east toward Syracuse.
Low clouds are likely to linger even after the steadier rain ends. Overnight temperatures will hold mainly in the low 50s, limiting the usual early October chill.
Visibility may be reduced at times in rain and low clouds Sunday afternoon and night. Conditions should improve Monday morning as the deeper moisture shifts away, though the return to dry weather will be gradual rather than immediate.
A mild break arrives Monday
Monday will be the quieter day between systems. Any lingering drizzle should fade during the morning, leaving a mostly cloudy but largely dry afternoon across the region.
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s in many areas, including Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse. Winds will be light as weak high pressure passes through, and any breaks in the clouds would help temperatures climb a little faster.
Clouds will increase again Monday night as the next low-pressure system crosses the Great Lakes. A few showers could reach western parts of the region late at night, but most of the more widespread rain is expected to hold until Tuesday.
Showers and storms return Tuesday
Tuesday will turn considerably warmer ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs could reach the mid-70s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with upper 70s possible closer to Rochester and the Genesee Valley if rain holds off long enough.
Numerous showers are expected to develop as the front approaches, and thunderstorms will also be possible. The storm chance depends on how much instability can build before the front crosses, so the timing of early showers and cloud cover will help determine how active the afternoon becomes.
The atmosphere will contain enough moisture for heavier downpours in any thunderstorms that develop. Wind shear will also be present, but confidence in organized stronger storms remains limited because the amount of surface instability is still uncertain.
Showers and thunderstorms may continue into Tuesday night before the cold front clears the region. Temperatures behind the front will fall back into the low and mid-50s overnight.
Cooler weather settles in midweek
Wednesday will be cooler and mostly cloudy, with a few lingering showers possible during the first part of the day. Highs are expected to range from the low 60s around Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse to the mid-60s near Ithaca.
Thursday currently looks mainly dry as high pressure builds into the region. Some sunshine should return, but afternoon temperatures will remain near 60 to the lower 60s, followed by lows in the low to mid-40s Thursday night.
Another system is expected to approach late Thursday night and Friday, bringing a renewed chance of rain and gustier south winds. Rain is likely in many areas Friday, with highs in the low to mid-60s before colder air follows the system.
Forecast confidence falls heading into next weekend, but the overall pattern favors breezy, showery and much cooler weather Saturday. Highs may struggle to leave the low 50s, and the Binghamton office noted that the incoming cold air could become sufficient for the season's first snowflakes in some part of its forecast region. Whether any wintry precipitation reaches Central New York remains uncertain and will depend on the strength and timing of the late-week system.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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